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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 31 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) moving slowly northwestward.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed August 31 2011
Location of Center: 26.4º N Lat 138.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 299 km West of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 376 km WNW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 403 km WSW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,015 km East of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,046 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 260 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM JST Wed Aug 31
TALAS (15W) is expected to move NNW during the next 24 hours & intensify slightly. A turn back to the north is forecast during the next 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying while maintaining its NW'ly motion...about 431 km WNW of Bonin Island [5AM SEP 01: 27.8N 136.9E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Returns to its usual Northward track across the open sea...no change in strength...about 679 km SSW of Tokyo [2AM SEP 02: 30.0N 137.1E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) radial circulation continues to improved except for the NW periphery with the eyewall wrapping closer to the large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 110 to 260 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 31 AUGUST POSITION: 26.5N 138.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A SHALLOWER BAND OF
CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 30/1632Z
AMSR-E IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHICH REMAIN DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
A 30/1217Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY DEPICTS THE EXPANSIVE WIND RADII. TS
15W IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF TS 15W, AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORHTWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TS 15W
TO TURN POLEWARD BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48. TS 15W SHOULD SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER BUT MAINTAINS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALOFT. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST HONSHU BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT TRACKS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND JAPAN AND BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 72 AND BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND REMAINS SPREAD,
WITH NOGAPS AND EGRR SUGGESTING A LANDFALL NEAR KYUSHU WITH JGSM
FORECASTING A TRACK EAST OF KYOTO. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS SPREAD
EVENLY BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS, EACH FORECASTING A DIFFERENT
RESPONSE TO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING
OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TS 15W. THIS FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AND
ANTICIPATED WEAKER INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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