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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 04 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #040/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) has slowed its westerly track while moving closer towards the South Coast of Okinawa.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu August 04 2011
Location of Eye: 24.8º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km SE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 199 km SSE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 209 km SSE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 456 km East of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 716 km East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 837 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 909 km SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 8: 1,009 km SE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Offshore of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (North of center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Thu Aug 04
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, REST OF VISAYAS (except Eastern Visayas). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to resume moving WNW as it approaches the southern coast of Okinawa tomorrow and turn more NW while moving across the East China Sea on Saturday. The core shall be passing close, to the SW Coast of Okinawa Island on Friday noontime approx 12 to 1 PM Japan Standard Time (03-04 GMT). After 48 hours, MUIFA shall slightly intensify as it moves into an area of warmer sea surface temperature w/ a higher ocean heat content located offshore of Eastern China (near Shanghai) - with a track more to the NNW. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), turning NW-ward...about 126 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa or 146 km SSE of Kadena Air Base [2AM AUG 05: 25.1N 128.0E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Passing to the SW of Okinawa Island...about 87 km WSW of Naha, Okinawa or 106 km WSW of Kadena Air Base [2PM AUG 05: 25.9N 126.9E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensified slightly as it moves across the warm East China Sea...moving farther away from Okinawa...about 202 km WNW of Okinawa City 2AM AUG 06: 26.8N 125.8E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to Category 3 as it threatens Jiangsu Province particularly Shanghai...about 480 km SE of Shanghai, China [2PM AUG 06: 27.9N 124.6E @ 185kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing to the southwest of the island...about 109 km WSW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 12:00-1:00 PM Japan Time, Friday].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the coast of Jiangsu Province, China...passing very close to the east of Shanghai [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 PM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the coast of Eastern China...passing very close to the east of Shanghai...weakens to Category 2 [2PM AUG 07: 31.0N 122.2E @ 165kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm while moving NNW along the shores of Jiangsu Province, China. [2PM AUG 08: 35.2N 120.1E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating & making landfall over Northern China, just well to the East of Beijing [2PM AUG 09: 39.8N 119.5E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains circular and compact w/ thick raincloud convection on all quadrants. The typhoon continues to display a large eye. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. However, the northern part of the eyewall may pass over the southernmost part of Okinawa sometime tomorrow morning. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - now spreading & affecting Okinawa. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, REST OF VISAYAS (except Eastern Visayas). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, REST OF VISAYAS (except Eastern Visayas). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 04 AUGUST POSITION: 24.7N 129.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE EYE HAS FILLED BUT MAINTAINS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER 040009Z
SSMIS SHOWS INDICATION THAT TY 11W IS COMPLETING AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A LARGER CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING A
PARTIAL INNER CONVECTIVE RING. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
MSI AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W MAINTAINS GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER, SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGIN TO ALLOW TY
11W TO SLOWLY TURN MORE POLEWARD. WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW INTO THE TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. BY TAU 72, TY 11W WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
CHINA, EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TAU 96. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF AS THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND EGRR AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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