Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #03


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) REACHES CATEGORY TWO STATUS...STILL ON A
PATH TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN...THREATENS SHIKOKU-KYUSHU AREA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI will remain on a consistent NW'ly
track for the next 2 days in the direction of Southwestern
Japan with forecast wind speeds of 220 km/hr (Cat 4). The
advance 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI making
landfall over Southwestern Shikoku-Eastern Kyushu early
Friday morning, Aug 3. It shall then traverse Southwestern
Honshu Friday morning, Aug 3. USAGI shall be off the Sea
of Japan Friday evening Aug 3


+ EFFECTS: USAGI's northern-edge outer bands now affecting
Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Intermittent rains with moderate
to strong winds can be expected along the area. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
be expected near and to the north of USAGI's projected path
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
are forecasting a
formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August 4
to 9. During the past 24-hour run of the model forecast (8 AM
& 8 PM Jul 30), it showed the first system forming over the
South China Sea around Aug 4 (Sat), becoming a major Typhoon
before making landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Mean-
while, the second system is likely to form sometime Aug 7 or 8
(Tue or Wed) in the area off the Philippine Sea, just to the
East of Bicol Region - then heading northwesterly in the di-
rection of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm or a Ty-
phoon
. The second one shows a close proximity to Luzon which
might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and give moderate to heavy
rainfall over the area. If this happens, it will be a big relief
to the dry areas of Luzon particularly over Angat Dam and other
reservoirs
. Watch out for more updates on this forecast
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 31 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.9º N...LONGITUDE 140.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 335 KM (180 NM) SSW OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 1,355 KM (732 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 1,925 KM (1,040 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TUE JULY 31
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY: 23.2N 139.5E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 24.7N 137.9E / 215-260 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 28.5N 133.8E / 215-260 KPH / NNW @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY POSITION: 21.4N 140.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEVELOPED
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DURING THAT PERIOD. TY USAGI HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTED A DEVELOPING
EYE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG IN OVER JAPAN,
WHICH HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, AIDING IN
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
INFLUENCED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


   

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Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #02


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 30 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD...THREAT TO JAPAN CONTINUES
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI is expected to continue moving towards
the NW for the next 2 to 3 days in the direction of Southwestern
Japan particularly Shikoku and Western Honshu. The advance 3 to
5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI turning more Northerly,
becoming a Category 4 system with winds of 230 km/hr before
making landfall over the western part of Shikoku Thursday eve-
ning, Aug 2. It shall then traverse Western Honshu Friday mor-
ning, Aug 3 - passing very close to Hiroshima, Japan. USAGI shall
be off the Northwestern coast of Honshu or over the Sea of Japan
Friday afternoon Aug 3


+ EFFECTS: USAGI over-all circulation continues to expand
with its Eastern outermost bands still affecting the
Agrihan and other small islands of Northernmost Mariana
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 30 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.3º N...LONGITUDE 141.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 735 KM (397 NM) NW OF SAIPAN
DISTANCE 2: 500 KM (270 NM) SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 2,020 KM (1,090 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 650 KM (350 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST MON JULY 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY: 21.4N 139.9E / 165-205 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY: 23.1N 138.3E / 185-230 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 26.9N 134.9E / 220-270 KPH / NNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 JULY POSITION: 20.0N 141.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEVELOPED
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DURING THAT PERIOD. TY USAGI HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTED A DEVELOPING
EYE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG IN OVER JAPAN,
WHICH HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, AIDING IN
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
INFLUENCED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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Monday, July 30, 2007

Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #01


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 30 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 30 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS WHICH DEVELOPED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM, HAS BECOME THE 4TH TYPHOON OF 2007 NAMED
USAGI
(05W)...THREATENS SOUTHERN JAPAN
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI is expected to turn towards the WNW
to NW'ly within 24 to 48 hours on a path towards Southern Japan.
The advance 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI turning
more to the NNW to Northerly and becoming a Category 4 system
with winds of 230 km/hr. The core is forecast to make landfall
over the eastern part of Shikoku and traversing Honshu - passing
very close to Kyoto, Japan early Friday mornning, Aug 4. USAGI
shall be off the Northern coast of Honshu or over the Sea of
Japan early Saturday morning, Aug 5


+ EFFECTS: USAGI over-all circulation continues to expand with
its Western outer bands still affecting the Agrihan and other
small islands of Northernmost Mariana
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 30 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.9º N...LONGITUDE 142.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 520 KM (280 NM) NW OF SAIPAN
DISTANCE 2: 670 KM (360 NM) SSE OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 2,210 KM (1,195 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 610 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST MON JULY 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 JULY: 19.6N 141.2E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY: 21.1N 139.6E / 165-205 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 24.9N 136.7E / 215-260 KPH / NNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 JULY POSITION: 18.7N 143.1E.
^SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TY STATUS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS AND EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE ON
THE MOST RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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Monday, July 16, 2007

TS MAN-YI (BEBENG) - Final Update


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #015 **FINAL**
Name: TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI [BEBENG/04W/0704] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 15 JULY 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #032
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (BEBENG) BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NOW HEADING INTO THE OPEN SEA (NORTH PACIFIC)
.

...THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE ON THIS SYSTEM.

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 15 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 34.7º N...LONGITUDE 141.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 205 KM (110 NM) SE OF TOKYO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 405 KM (220 NM) SSE OF SENDAI, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 430 KM (230 NM) ESE OF NAGOYA, JAPAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 45 KM/HR (25 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 777 KM (420 NM)/ LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME JULY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 12 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 JUL: 35.6N 145.7E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 45 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 JULY POSITION: 34.4N 140.3E.

>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
   ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the 
   sea has become a reservoir. 
Name contributed by: Hong Kong.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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