Saturday, July 21, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 03

 

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 03

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has slightly intensified for the past 6 hours while over the Balintang channel. Its rainbands continue to affect the Extreme Northern, Northern and Western parts of Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will move northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 30 km/hr, and will pass over or very close to Babuyan Group of Islands on or before midnight tonight.  By tomorrow, Sunday (July 22), 13W is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the eastern Balintang on Sunday morning and shall be over the western part of the North Philippine Sea on Sunday afternoon.

The combined effects of this depression, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 21…0900 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.7°N 120.2°E), about 67 km west of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 127 km north of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)East-northeast@ 26 kph, towards the Babuyan Group of Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it turns east-northeastward while over the eastern part of Balintang Channel…about 95 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM July 22: 19.3°N 122.4°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as a TS while over the western part of North Philippine Sea…about 363 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM July 22: 22.2°N 125.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Exits Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR) and maintains its intensity as a TS while over the Southern part of  East China Sea…about 310 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 23: 25.5°N 124.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 410 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.7ºN Lat 120.2ºE Lon
Distance 1: 157 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 202 km NW of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 233 km N of San Fernando  City, La Union
Distance 4: 259 km NW of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 468 km N of Metro Manila12 hr.Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.3ºN 122.4ºE (TS)
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.2ºN 125.0ºE (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.5ºN 124.6ºE (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

josie18_02_signals

 

__._,_.___

Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.


SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 02

 

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 02

josie18_02

josie18_02_zoom

josie18_02_loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has accelerated eastward for the past 6 hours while maintaining its strength, as it moves closer to Ilocos Provinces and Babuyan Group of Islands. Its Southeastern and Eastern Rainbands continues to spread across Ilocos Region.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (Josie) is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and move east-northeast to northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 25 km/hr, and will pass over or very close to Calayan Island on or before midnight tonight.  By tomorrow, Sunday morning (July 22), 13W shall be over the southeastern part of the Bashi Channel.

The combined effects of this depression, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 21…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.0°N 118.9°E), about 165 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 180 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)East @ 21 kph, towards the Babuyan Group of Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Ilocos Region and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Becomes a TS as it turns east-northeastward while over the  southern part of the Balintang Channel, just near the offshore areas of Northern Ilocos Norte…about 65 km west-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8PM July 21: 18.9°N 120.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly and accelerates rapidly to the east-northeast to northeastward across the southeasternmost part of the Bashi Channel, after traversing the Babuyan Group of Islands…about 114 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 22: 20.5°N 123.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR while turning northward across the southern part of the East China Sea, intensifies further…about 276 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM July 23: 26.0°N 124.1°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.0ºN Lat 118.9ºE Lon
Distance 1: 213 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 236 km NNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 266 km NW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 292 km W of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 445 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.5ºN 123.1ºE (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.0ºN 124.1ºE (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

josie18_02_signals

__._,_.___

Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.


SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___

Tropical Depression 13W Update No. 01

 

Tropical Depression 13W Update No. 01

josie18_01

josie18_01_zoom

josie18_01_loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W UPDATE NO. 01

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

The strong disturbance (LPA 98W) over the West Philippine Sea has rapidly intensified into Tropical Depression 13W and has entered the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…now threatens Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces and the Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and move east-northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 24 km/hr, and will pass over or very close to Batanes by early Sunday morning (July 22).  

The combined effects of its rainbands, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will bring light to moderate to at times heavy  or extreme scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today..

Where is 13W?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 21…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Balintang Channel (near 17.9°N 117.7°E), about 287 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 311 km northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)East @ 16 kph, towards the Babuyan-Batanes Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Ilocos Region and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today.. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it turns east-northeastward while over the  southern part of the Balintang Channel, just west of the offshore areas of Ilocos Norte…110 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM July 21: 18.5°N 119..6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates rapidly to the northeast as it traverses the southern portions of the Batanes Group of Islands, strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 42 km south-southwest of Basco, Batanes [2AM July 22: 20.1°N 121.9°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to accelerate while over the Yaeyama Islands, turns northward as it exits the northern border of PAR…about 296 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 23: 24.9°N 124.5°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 535 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.9ºN Lat 117.7ºE Lon
Distance 1: 338 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 350 km WNW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 3: 373 km NW of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 410 km NW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 5: 515 km NW of Metro Manila
12 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.5ºN 119.6ºE (TS)
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.1ºN 121.9ºE (STS)
36 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.9ºN 124.3ºE (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.9ºN 124.5ºE (STS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


__._,_.___

Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.


SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W StormWatch No. 01

 

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W StormWatch No. 01

98w18-stormwatch-01

98w18-stormwatch-01-loop

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 98W STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Friday 20 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Saturday 21 July 2018
Current Status and OutlookA rapidly-organizing area of low pressure over the West Philippine Sea is eyeing to become a Tropical Cyclone within a day or two..  This system, Tropical Disturbance 98W, is expected to threaten Batanes Group of Islands this weekend.

It will therefore induce the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms across the western sections of Northern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila through the weekend.

Where is LPA 98W?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 20…0900 GMT. The center was located outside of he Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the northwestern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 18.8ºN 116.2ºE), about 468 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 636 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 30 kph near the center…Gustiness: 40 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)East Slowly, towards the Western part of the Balintang Channel.
Forecast Highlights
  • LPA 98W is forecast to enter the PAR tomorrow morning (Saturday), July 21 and shall become a TD. It will then traverse the western part of the Balintang Channel on Sunday morning (July 22) as a Tropical Storm (TS), passing over or very close to Batanes Group of Islands. 
  • This system shall move out of the northwestern border of the PAR on Monday morning (July 23).
  • It will be named locally as "JOSIE" once PAGASA upgrades it into a Tropical Cyclone.
  • This StormWatch Update will be replaced by a 6-hourly Tropical Cyclone Update once this system becomes a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


__._,_.___

Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.


SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___