Monday, September 17, 2018

Transferring to Typhoon2000.com Google Groups: New Instructions

 

Dear Fellow Subscribers,


Here are some changes in what me and you can do to make the process fast in transferring to Google Groups.


1. For those who are not yet added into the new Google Groups, but have an existing Gmail Account, kindly visit this link to register:  https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/typhoon2000com-philippine-storm-updates


2. Other subscribers, not using Gmail or Google accounts, must email me directly @ t2kstormupdates@gmail.com for me to directly add you into our new mailing list.


3. Others who already received the invitations and accepted them, you do not have to do anything.


I hope this instruction is clear to all of us.


Thank you.


Sincerely,


Mike Padua



 

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Sunday, September 16, 2018

Migrating from Yahoo Groups to Google Groups (Effective Immediately)

 

Dear Fellow Typhoon2000.com Subscribers,

Due to the poor service of Yahoo Groups, I am now transferring all of your email to Google Groups. Feel free to accept this new invite for you to continue receiving email updates on upcoming tropical cyclones threatening our beloved country, the Philippines.

Why the change?  As you know during the recent Super Typhoon Mangkhut (Ompomg), email blasting of our updates was delayed often with delay times reaching almost a day. Thus, my decision to change to Google Groups which is now one of the best.

A separate EMAIL INVITE will be sent to your email addresses. Kindly click the ACCEPT THE INVITATION on that email, shown at the very bottom of that email.

Now, in the future if you wish to unsubscribe kindly send me a personal message to t2kstormupdates@gmail.com and I will be happy to remove you in my list.


I hope you will continue to stay with us in watching the skies along the eastern horizon. May God always spare us from these natural tempest. Stay safe always and spread the word.

God bless us all.

Sincerely,

David Michael "Mr. Typhoon" Padua
Owner
Typhoon2000.com
Typhoon2000.ph
Maybagyo.com


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Saturday, September 15, 2018

Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 18

 

Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 18

TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 18

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 16 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) continues losing steam but remains a large tropical cyclone with rainbands extending half a thousand kilometers from the eye.  This system is about to leave the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), however, rains with gusty winds will prevail across Northern and Central Luzon tonight.

Meanwhile, at 3:00 PM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Laoag International Airport (CebuPac) reported wind gust of 156 km/hr blowing from the SSE.

24-hr Outlook: TY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to accelerate west-northwestward across the South China Sea with a forward speed of 29 km/hr. A decrease in its strength is likely to occur, as Mangkhut approaches Southern China. It will be approaching the shores of Hong Kong by tomorrow, Sunday afternoon (Sept. 16).

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 15…0900 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.2°N Lat 118.9°E ), about 210 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte or 240 km northwest of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 180 kph near the center…Gustiness: 225 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards Southern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Central Luzon – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas:: Whole Coastal Areas of Western Luzon – Today.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it traverses the South China Sea on a WNW track…about 394 km southeast of Hong Kong, China  [2AM Sept 16: 20.1°N 117.0°E @ 180 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the coast of Guangdong Province as it prepares to make a second landfall but with a decreased wind speed…about 88 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 16: 21.7°N 113.7°E @ 165 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 950 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 255 km from the center

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat September 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.2°N Lat 118.9°E 
Distance 1: 304 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 327 km NNW of San Fernando  City, La Union
Distance 3: 347 km WNW of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 352 km WNW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 563 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.7°N 113.7°E (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario and David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

https://weatherph.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Ompong18_18_signals.png


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Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 17

 

Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 17

ompong18_17

ompong18_17_zoom

ompong18_17_loop

TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 17

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) no longer super as it emerges over the West Coast of Ilocos Norte. Its circulation has been disrupted by the mountains of Northern Luzon, upon crossing the area early this morning  The somewhat large rain bands will continue to spread across Luzon, bringing occasional rains and gusty winds over the area.

At 8:00 AM today, a WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Bangui, Ilocos Norte  has reported wind gust of 172 km/hr blowing from the Northeast.

24-hr Outlook: TY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to move out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight, and will accelerate west-northwestward across the South China Sea with a forward speed of 27 km/hr.  An increase in its strength is likely to occur, as Mangkhut approaches Southern China.

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 15…0300 GMT. The center was located overland or over  the Southwestern part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.5°N 120.1°E), about 62 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur or 108 km north-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center…Gustiness: 240 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards Southern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Central Luzon – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas:: Whole Coastal Areas of Western Luzon – Today.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken as it exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Southern China…about 271 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte  [8PM Sept 15: 19.3°N 118.3°E  @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Approaching Southern China with increasing wind speed…about 216 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 16: 20.8°N 115.3°E @ 200kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 890 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 265 km from the center

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat September 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.5°N Lat 120.1°E Lon
Distance 1: 163 km W of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 186 km NW of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 212 km N of San Fernando City. La Union
Distance 4: 217 km W of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 448 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.8°N 115.3°E  (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua  for WeatherPhilippines

ompong18_17_signals


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Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 16

 

Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 16

ompong18_16

ompong18_16_zoom

ompong18_16_loop

SUPER TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 16

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook

The eye of Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is now over Apayao Province after it made landfall along the towns of Baggao and Gattaran in Eastern Cagayan early this morning at 2:00 AM.  The large core has dumped heavy to extreme rainfall with very strong winds across Cagayan and nearby areas.

At 4:00 AM today, a WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Iguig, Cagayan  has reporded wind gust of 204 km/hr blowing from the West.

24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to cross Ilocos Norte this morning and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, while moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 25 km/hr.  This howler will eventually move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late tonight or early Sunday morning, with a decrease intensity.

Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 15…2100 GMT. The center was located overland or over  the eastern part of Northern Abra (near 18.2°N 121.5°E), about 23 km southwest of Aparri, Cagayan or 96 km east of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center…Gustiness: 270 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 31 kph, across Northern Abra-Ilocos Norte Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  Currently Overland.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>Northern & Central Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Northern & Central Luzon – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas:: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – Today.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Emerges over the West Philippine Sea while weakening into a Typhoon…about 124 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte  [2PM Sept 15: 18.8°N 119.6°E  @ 205kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Continues to weaken as it  exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Southern China…about 386 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 16: 20.0°N 116.8°E @ 190kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 815 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 270 km from the center

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat September 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.2°N Lat 121.5°E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km NNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 2: 76 km WSW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 126 km S of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 137 km ENE of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 5: 406 km N of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.0°N 116.8°E  (TY)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua  for WeatherPhilippines

ompong18_16_signals


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