Typhoon MANGKHUT Update No. 02

TYPHOON MANGKHUT UPDATE NO. 02 Issued at: 6:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Tuesday, 11 September 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 11 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon MANGKHUT has grown larger as it continues to intensify while moving westward towards the Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours. 24 to 36-hr Outlook: Typhoon (TY) MANGKHUT is forecast to continue moving westward towards the Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 21 km/hr. It is then expected to become a Super Typhoon as it enters the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday afternoon or evening (Sept 12). This typhoon is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 72 hours (3 days).
Where is MANGKHUT?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 11…2100 GMT. The eye was located over the sea west of the Northern Mariana Islands (near 14.0°N 141.9°E), about 313 km west of Hagatna, Guam or 1,913 km east of Bicol Region, Philippines.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 190 kph near the center…Gustiness: 235 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 27 kph, towards the Easternmost Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):* >>None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
5-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Still moving westward across the Western Pacific Ocean, approaching the PAR line as it continues to intensify…about 1,351 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Sept 12: 14.0°N 137.8°E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Already inside the PAR, as it turns West-Northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea, becomes a Super Typhoon…about 931 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM Sept 13: 15.0°N 133.3°E @ 235kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its Super Typhoon classification while moving west-northwestward across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 612 km northeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [2AM Sept 14: 16.5°N 128.4°E @ 235kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon as it approaches the Babuyan and Batanes Island Group on a northwesterly track…about 153 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Sept 15: 19.0°N 123.5°E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it weakens further while moving west-northwestward towards Southern China..about 290 km southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Sept 16: 21.0°N 118.1°E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 705 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km from the center
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue September 11, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.0ºN Lat 141.9ºE Lon Distance 1: 1805 km E of Samar, PH Distance 2: 2145 km E of Aurora, PH Distance 3: 2166 km ESE of Cagayan, PH Distance 4: 2231 km ESE of Batanes, PH Distance 5: 2246 km E of Metro Manila, PH 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.0ºN 137.8ºE (TY) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.0ºN 133.3ºE (STY) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.5ºN 128.4ºE (STY) 96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.0ºN 123.5ºE (TY) 120 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.0ºN 118.1ºE (TY)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com

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