Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 15
SUPER TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 15Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 September 2018 | |
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| Current Status and Outlook | Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) has maintained its strength and speed as the "Eye" and its core approaches the eastern coast of Cagayan, with landfall imminent in just a few hours from now. Important Note: This howler is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoons ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998 and HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016. Preparations in Northern and Central Luzon must be completed already as it is only less than 6 hours before it makes landfall. 24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to weaken and slow down as it moves west-northwestward with a forward speed of 27 km/hr, and will make landfall along Northeastern Cagayan in the next few hours at around 1 to 2 AM today (Sept 15). Some fluctuations in its wind speed is anticipated before it makes landfall and as it traverses the northern tip of Luzon, with a possible downgrading of this system into a Typhoon. |
| Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)? | As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, September 14…1500 GMT. The eye was located over the Northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.7°N 123.2°E), about 140 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 156 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan |
| How strong is it? | Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 250 kph near the center…Gustiness: 300 kph. |
| Past Movement (06 hrs) | West-Northwest @ 32 kph, towards Northern Isabela-Southern Cagayan Area. |
| Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) | :: Along Northeastern Cagayan, between 1 to 2 AM local time Today, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%. |
| What Philippine areas will be directly affected? | Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >>Northern & Central Luzon – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): |
| Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas | :: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – Today. |
| 2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** | SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Typhoon after making landfall over Eastern Cagayan at around 1 to 2 AM of Saturday…Then at 8AM of the said day, the eye of the Super Typhoon will be located over the Ilocos Norte about 31 km southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM Sept 15: 19.2°N 118.1°E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SATURDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken after traversing Northern Luzon as it exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)… located over the Western Balintang Channel about 285 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Sept 15: 19.2°N 118.1°E @ 180kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SUNDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea….re-intensifies slightly…about 244 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [8AM Sept 16: 20.°5N 115.3°E @ 190kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SUNDAY EVENING: Continues to intesify slowly while as it make its landfall over southern part of China….about 241 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [8PM Sept 16: 21.7°N 111.9°E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. |
| Other Storm Info | > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1175 km (Large) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 250 km from the center |
| Additional Information | Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri September 14, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.7°N Lat 123.2°E Lon Distance 1: 115 km NE of Palanan, Isabela Distance 2: 180 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 189 km E of Tabuk City, Kalinga Distance 4: 206 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela Distance 5: 416 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.2°N 118.1°E (TY) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.7°N 111.9°E (TY) |
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. | |
Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines
https://weatherph.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Ompong18_15_signals.png
Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com
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