Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Final Update

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Final Update

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 04 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Wednesday 03 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) is now over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan between 10-11pm last night, and is expected to reach the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) this afternoon.  This cyclone will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before noon today.

*This is the Final Update on this year's first Tropical Cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to move west-northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 25 km/hr across the West Philippine and South China Seas, and shall maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours. By Thursday afternoon (Jan 04), 01W (AGATON) shall start to dissipate as it nears the east coast of Vietnam.

Where is 01W (AGATON)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 03…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 9.8N 116.3E), about 260 km east-southeast of Pagasa Island (KIG), or 273 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 32 kph, towards Kalayaan Island Group-South China Sea Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratlys), outside of PAR as it turns west-northwestward while maintaining its strength…about 570 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 03: 11.1N 113.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving closer to the east coast of Vietnam while over the South China Sea, with no change of strength and track…about 784 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 04: 11.6N 111.8E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed January 03, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 116.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 662 km SW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 679 km W of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 698 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 709 km SW of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 5: 741 km SW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 03

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 03

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward at a speed of 31 km/hr over the northwestern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to make landfall over the eastern coast of Central Palawan tonight (Jan 02) between 8-9PM. Residents are advised to take all precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, lightning strikes, and strong winds. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves west-northwestward at a forward speed of 34 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern-Eastern-Western Visayas…becoming more frequent along Northern and Central Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands.

Where is 01W (AGATON)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, January 02…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the Sulu Sea (near 9.4N 119.7E), about 118 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 308 km west of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 31 kph, towards Central Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Central Palawan tonight between 8-9pm, with a High  Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Northern Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the southwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 208 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 03: 10.2N 116.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 596 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 03: 11.3N 113.5E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 570 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Tue January 02, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.4º N Lat 119.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 346 km W of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 356 km WSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 376 km W of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 378 km WSW of Paasi  City, Iloilo
Distance 5: 594 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 02

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 02

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 02 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) continues to move very quickly westward and is now over the central part of the Sulu Sea, or in the vicinity of Cagayancillo Island.  The core of the TD is expected to make landfall over Central Palawan early tonight before emerging over the West Philippine Sea.  Rainy weather with strong winds are likely across Central and Northern Palawan this afternoon through the evening. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to continue moving quickly to the west with a fast forward speed of 36 km/hr, and could become a Tropical Storm later today.  It shall be crossing Central Palawan tonight between 7-8pm and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea early tomorrow morning (Jan 03), and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before noon tomorrow.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern-Eastern-Western Visayas…becoming more frequent along Northern and Central Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands.

Where is 01W (AGATON)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, January 02…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the Sulu Sea (near 9.5N 121.4E), about 20 km east-southeast of Cagayancillo Island or 291 km east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan..
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 35 kph, towards Central Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Central Palawan  between 7-8pm tonight, with a High  Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Northern Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands – Today..

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Aborlan, Palawan as it becomes a Tropical Storm (TS), moving quickly westward…about 74 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Jan 02: 9.5N 118.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves out of PAR on WNW track, passing over the Kalayaan Island Group…about 470 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Jan 03: 10.2N 114.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into a TD as it moves WNW across the South China Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam…about 934 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Jan 04: 11.6N 110.4E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 345 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue January 02, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.5º N Lat 121.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 122 km WSW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 166 km WSW of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 189 km W of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 205 km N of Bago City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 565 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data.. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 01

 

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 01

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 01

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 02 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) newly-formed over Southern Visayas as it rapidly moves westward across the area at a speed of 39 km/hr…now making landfall over the Southern Tip of Cebu, and will traverse Southern Negros in the next couple of hours and emerge over the Sulu Sea, passing very near Cagayancillo Island around noontime today.  This TD will eventually cross Central Palawan tonight.

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to continue moving quickly to the west with a fast forward speed of 36 km/hr, and could become a Tropical Storm later today.  It shall be crossing Central Palawan tonight between 7-8pm and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea early tomorrow morning (Jan 03), and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by midday morning.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Southern Bicol, Visayas, Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Eastern and Western Visayas, and Palawan..

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 02…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Southern Tip of Cebu or in the vicinity of Samboan, Cebu (near 9.5N 123.3E), about 21 km north of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental or 37 km east of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 39 kph, towards Southern Negros-Central Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Southern part of Negros this morning…and over Central Palawan between 7-8pm tonight, with a High  Strike Probability of 85-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Visayas and Palawan – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None..

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across Sulu Sea, approaching Central Palawan…about 182 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 02: 9.6N 120.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan…moving generally westward as it is about to exit PAR…about 263 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 03: 9.7N 116.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its TS classification as it turns WNW across the South China Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam…about 860 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 04: 11.1N 111.0E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 435 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue January 02, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.5º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 66 km WSW of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 2: 77 km S of Guihulngan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 3: 92 km ESE of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 98 km N of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 5: 615 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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