Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 04

 

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 04

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (HENRY) UPDATE NO. 04

Issued at: 11:45 PM PhT (15:45 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward across Babuyan Island Group at a speed of 28 km/hr. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves westward at an accelerated speed of 40 km/hr. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning (July 17).  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), TD 11W (HENRY), and LPA 94W will continue to bring moderate to heavy scattered/occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 16…1500 GMT. The center was located over the central part of Balintang Channel (near 18.8N 121.3E), about 56 km east-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 62 km south-southwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan..
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 28 kph, towards West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) after it exits the PAR, over the West Philippine Sea…about 323 km west-northwest of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte [8AM July 17: 19.6N 117.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a slightly intensified TS while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside of PAR…about 298 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8PM July 17: 19.8N 113.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM..

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 385 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.8º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km NE of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 155 km N of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 199 km SSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 216 km NNW of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 471 km N of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.8N 113.4E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Final Update

 

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Final Update

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (HENRY) UPDATE NO. 05 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) has reached the West Philippine Sea after crossing the Babuyan Island Group last night, and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this morning.

*This is the Final Update on this tropical cyclone.

24-hr OutlookTD 11W (HENRY) is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and will move westward at an accelerated speed of 43 km/hr. It will be approaching the eastern shores of Hainan Island by early Wednesday morning (July 18) as a 75-km/hr storm.  

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), TD 11W (HENRY), and LPA 94W will continue to bring moderate to heavy scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 17…2100 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.1N 120.0E), about 104 km northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 156 km west of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 23 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northwestern Luzon – Today. 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) after exiting the PAR, moving westward across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 363 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM July 17: 19.4N 115.5E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it bears down the eastern coast of Hainan Island (Southern China)…about 445 km southwest of Hong Kong, China [2AM July 18: 19.3N 111.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 85 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue July 17, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 120.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 118 km NNW of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 241 km NW of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 259 km SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 280 km N of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 5: 516 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.3N 111.4E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data.. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Monday, July 16, 2018

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 03

 

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 03

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (HENRY) UPDATE NO. 03

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) has maintained its strength as it starts to cross the Babuyan Group of Islands.  Windy with heavy rains expected along Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to maintain its fast, westward movement and will cross the Babuyan Group of Islands tonight between 7 to 10 pm, and will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning (July 17).  This system could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or early Tuesday morning.

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), TD 11W (HENRY), and LPA 94W will continue to bring moderate to heavy scattered/occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 16…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of Bashi Channel (near 18.9N 122.9E), about 91 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 158 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 23 kph, towards Babuyan Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Babuyan Island Group tonight between 7:00-10:00 PM, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the western part of the Balintang Channel, and is about to exit the PAR…about 133 km northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM July 17: 19.4N 119.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates rapidly westward, while traversing the northern part of the South China Sea, outside of PAR…about 313 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM July 17: 19.9N 115.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tonkin, starts to weaken after crossing Hainan Island…about 659 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8AM July 18: 20.2N 108.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.   

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 265 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 198 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 219 km NNE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 226 km NE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 4: 250 km NNE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 519 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.9N 115.5E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.2N 108.2E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.9N 105.4E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

henry18_02_signals


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 02

 

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) Update No. 02

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (HENRY) UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 16 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 11W (HENRY) speeds up, closer to Northern Cagayan and Batames Area and has slightly intensified. It is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

24-hr Outlook: TD 11W (HENRY) is expected to maintain its fast, westward movement over the northern part of the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 33 km/hr. It is expected to cross Babuyan Island Group tonight between 8 to 11 pm, and will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning (July 17).

The combined effects of enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and TD 11W (HENRY) will bring moderate to heavy to at times extreme scattered/occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern, Central & Southern Luzon; MiMaRoPa; Bicol Region; Metro Manila; & Western Visayas.

Where is 11W (HENRY)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 16…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.0N 124.2E), about 223 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 282 km southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 34 kph, towards Babuyan Island Group.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Babuyan Island Group today (July 16) between 8:00-11:00 PM, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern & Northern Luzon (July 17). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing the Babuyan Island Group, in the vicinity of Babuyan Island…about 56 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM July 16: 19.4N 122.0E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it tracks westward while already outside of the PAR or over the South China Sea…about 342 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM July 17: 19.6N 117.7E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tonkin, starts to weaken after crossing Hainan Islands…about 659 km west-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8AM July 18: 20.2N 108.2E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 390 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon July 16, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.0º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 293 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 311 km NE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 341 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 4: 359 km E of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 699 km NE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.4N 122.0E (TS)
48 hr.. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.2N 108..2E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.5N 104.9E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc.. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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