Friday, July 03, 2015

TS LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 002

 


Tropical Storm LINFA (EGAY) Update Number 002



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 002

Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Friday 03 July 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 03 July 2015
10W (EGAY) becomes a Tropical Storm, with a global name: LINFA - a chinese word for Lotus. This cyclone could threaten Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend. Its southwesternmost rainbands affecting some portions of Eastern Bicol Region and Northern Samar.


Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS LINFA (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


None for the next 24 hours.


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 03...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Over the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.0N 127.6E)
About: 450 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 590 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 450 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 08 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to slow down slightly during the next 24 hours as it moves west-northwest...turning slightly northwestward on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will traverse the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Saturday and shall be approaching the eastern coast of Northern Cagayan by early Sunday morning (Jul 05).

TS LINFA (EGAY) will continue to gain strength throughout the forecast period...becoming a Severe Tropical Storm on Sunday morning. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 110 kph by early Sunday morning (Jul 05).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it moves west-northwest over the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea...about 385 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2AM JUL 04: 16.5N 126.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coasts of Isabela and Cagayan...strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm...about 175 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [2AM JUL 05: 17.3N 124.0E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Bearing down the east coast of Northern Cagayan, becomes a minimal Typhoon...about 40 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM JUL 06: 18.3N 122.5E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Jul 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.0º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 565 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 640 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 655 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 725 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


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TD 10W (EGAY) Update Number 001

 


Tropical Depression 10W (EGAY) Update Number 001



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (EGAY) UPDATE NUMBER 001

Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Thursday 02 July 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 03 July 2015
Tropical Depression 10W (EGAY) has slightly gained strength as it moves north-northwestward during the past 6 hours over the central part of the Philippine Sea.


Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of TD 10W (EGAY).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


None for the next 24 hours.


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 02...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 10W (EGAY)
Location: Over the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.8N 128.8E)
About: 505 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 735 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 30 to 325 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 530 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: North-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 10W (EGAY) is expected to slow down during the next 24 hours as it moves northwest...shifting to west-northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, TD 10W will continue to slowly traverse the central part of the Philippine Sea on Friday afternoon and shall be moving towards the eastern coasts of Northern Luzon on Saturday afternoon (Jul 04).

TD 10W (EGAY) will continue to gain strength throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph on Saturday afternoon (Jul 04).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it moves northwest over the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 575 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUL 03: 16.2N 127.5E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Shifts to the west-northwest, towards the eastern coasts of Northern Luzon...continues to intensify...about 335 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM JUL 04: 17.1N 124.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Still gaining strength as it turns northwesterly slowly, closer to the northeastern coast of Cagayan...about 205 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUL 05: 18.1N 124.0E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.8º N Lat 128.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 500 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 620 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 3: 840 km East of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 780 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 820 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Final Update

 

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Final Update



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 025 [FINAL]

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Monday 11 May 2015
Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) accelerating east-northeastward farther away from the Batanes Group of Islands...decaying rapidly as it moves over an area of unfavourable sea and atmospheric conditions. Forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early Tuesday.

*This is the final update on Noul (Dodong).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


None.


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 11 ...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 22.5N 123.9E)
About: 295 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 595 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 605 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 140 km east from the center and 130 km west from the center
Past Movement: ENE @ 36 kph
Forecast Movement: East-Northeast to Northeast @ 52 kph
Towards: Ryukyus


1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue to accelerate rapidly east-northeast to northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be passing over or very near Ryukyu Islands early Tuesday morning.

NOUL (DODONG) will weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions and is likely to transform into an Extratropical Cyclone on Tuesday. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to Tropical Storm strength at 85 kph on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the 1-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it accelerates North-Northeast to Northeastward, exiting the PAR...about 280 km southeast of Kagoshima, Japan [2PM MAY 12: 29.4N 131.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon May 11, 2015
Location of Center: Near 22.5º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km S of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 2: 290 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 365 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 435 km NNE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 5: 485 km N of Santa Ana, Cagayan

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Monday, May 11, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 024

 


Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 024



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 024

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Monday 11 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Evening, 11 May 2015
Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) is now tracking northward across the Batanes Islands as it prepares to recurve towards the Ryukyu Islands of Southern Japan...continues to lose strength...strong winds and rains are still prevailing over the Batanes Group.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Batanes Group of Islands - today.
WINDS
  • Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands - today.
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Babuyan Islands - today.

STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 2.7-3.9 m (9-12 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes Group of Islands - today. Exensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Babuyan Islands. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 11 ...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the Batanes Group of Islands (near 20.3N 121.8E)
About: 30 km southwest of Basco, Batanes...or 45 km south of Itbayat, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 420 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km east from the center and 150 km west from the center
Past Movement: North @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: North-northeast to Northeast @ 38 kph
Towards: Ryukyus


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue to move northward briefly and afterwards it will accelerate as it recurves to the north-northeast and northeast for the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be passing across the Bashi Channel this morning and shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way to the Ryukyu Islands late tonight. Noul shall be off the coast of Southern Honshu on Wednesday early morning.

NOUL (DODONG) shall weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to Tropical Storm strength at 95 kph on Wednesday early morning.

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it accelerates North-Northeast to Northeastward, exiting the PAR...about 130 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan [2AM MAY 12: 26.0N 126.6E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Skirting swiftly Southern Japan...weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 300 km northeast of Tokyo, Japan [2AM MAY 13: 37.6N 142.1E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon May 11, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 20.3º N Lat 121.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km N of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 215 km NNW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 115 km NNE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 230 km NNE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 920 km SW of Okinawa, Japan


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Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 023

 



Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 023



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 023

Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Monday 11 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Morning, 11 May 2015
Eye of Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) emerging over the Balintang Channel as it continues to lose strength...strong winds and rains will continue to prevail over Northeeastern Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northeastern Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, and Batanes Group of Islands - Tonight through Monday morning (May 11).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Cagayan and Northeastern Isabela - Tonight (May 10).
WINDS
  • Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern coasts of Cagayan incl. the eastern islands of the Babuyan Group - late this afternoon (May 10) through early Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Eastern Cagayan, eastern coasts of Isabela and rest of the Babuyan Group - Sunday (May 10).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of the eastern sections of Isabela and rest of Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).

STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4.0-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Calayan Island - today...and across Batanes Group of Islands - early Monday morning (May 11). Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Rest of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, May 10 ...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the Balintang Channel (near 19.1N 122.1E)
About: 65 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan...or 70 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 405 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km North from the center and 75 km south from the center
Past Movement: North @ 16 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast @ 20 kph
Towards: Batanes Group of Islands


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move north to north-northwestward at an average speed for the next 24 hours...accelerating and turning to the northeast on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be passing over the Batanes Group of Islands early tomorrow morning. By early Tuesday morning, Noul shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way to the Ryukyu Islands...and shall be off the coast of Southern Honshu on Tuesday evening.

NOUL (DODONG) shall weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to Tropical Storm strength at 100 kph on Tuesday evening.

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Weakens as it accelerates North to North-Northeastward, after traversing the Balintang Channel and the Batanes Group of Islands...about 285 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM MAY 11: 22.8N 123.2E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EVENING: Passed swiftly across Okinawa and the Ryukyus...already outside of PAR...about 410 km southwest of Tokyo, Japan [8PM MAY 12: 32.8N 137.0E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun May 10, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 122.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 155 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 190 km SSE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 150 km ENE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 1010 km SW of Okinawa, Japan

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Sunday, May 10, 2015

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #022

 

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 022



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 022

Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Sunday 10 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Early Morning, 11 May 2015
Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has weakened slightly as it skirts along the eastern shores of Cagayan...bringing violent winds over the area.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northeastern Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, and Batanes Group of Islands - Tonight through Monday morning (May 11).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Cagayan and Northeastern Isabela - Tonight (May 10).
WINDS
  • Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern coasts of Cagayan incl. the eastern islands of the Babuyan Group - late this afternoon (May 10) through early Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Eastern Cagayan, eastern coasts of Isabela and rest of the Babuyan Group - Sunday (May 10).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of the eastern sections of Isabela and rest of Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).

STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4.0-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Eastern Isabela - today...and across Calayan Island - tonight through early Sunday morning (May 11). Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Rest of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 10...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the northeastern tip of Cagayan (near 18.3N 122.4E)
About: 145 km north of Palanan, Isabela...or 25 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 230 kph near the center...Gustiness: 285 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 350 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 615 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km North from the center and 140 km south from the center
Past Movement: North-northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: North @ 20 kph
Towards: Northern Cagayan-Balintang Channel Area


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move northward at an average speed for the next 24 hours...accelerating and turning to the north-northeast and northeast on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be traversing Babuyan and Balintang Channels tonight passing over the Batanes Group of Islands early tomorrow morning. By Monday evening, Noul shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way to the Ryukyu Islands.

NOUL (DODONG) shall weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 120 kph on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it turns north...traverses the Balintang Channel and the Batanes Group of Islands...about 190 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 11: 22.1N 122.6E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Recurves and accelerates to the north-northeast and northeast across Yaeyama-Ishigaki Islands...weakens further into a minimal typhoon...about 635 km northeast of Okinawa, Japan [2PM MAY 12: 30.7N 132.3E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun May 10, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.3º N Lat 122.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km NNE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 2: 100 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 75 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 235 km NNE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 240 km SSE of Basco, Batanes

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Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 020

 

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 020



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 020

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Sunday 10 May 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 10 May 2015
NOUL (DODONG) on its course of intensification has reached the strength of a Super Typhoon...seriously threatening Northeastern Luzon particularly Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan. The Potential Landfall Area of its eyewall will be somewhere along the eastern tip of Northeastern Cagayan by Sunday evening (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.


Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Eastern Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands and Northeastern Isabela - Today through Monday morning (May 11).
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Isabela and Cagayan - Today through Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Aurora and Quirino - Today (May 10).
WINDS
  • Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern coasts of Cagayan incl. the eastern islands of the Babuyan Group - late this afternoon (May 10) through early Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Eastern Cagayan, eastern coasts of Isabela and rest of the Babuyan Group - Sunday (May 10).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of the eastern sections of Isabela and rest of Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 11...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the West-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 16.7N 123.6E)
About: 170 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora...or 130 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km North from the center and 140 km south from the center
Past Movement: North-northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-northwest @ 17 kph
Towards: Northeastern Luzon


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move northwest to north-northwestward at a normal speed for the next 24 hours...turning sharply to the north and north-northeast on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the eastern shores of Northern Isabela and Cagayan today through this evening (May 10)...its western eyewall shall make landfall over the eastern tip of Northeastern Cagayan early tonight. The typhoon shall then traverse the Babuyan and Balintang Channels tonight through early Monday morning...and could be over Southern Ryukyus by early Tuesday morning.

NOUL (DODONG) will likely gradually weaken throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds retain at 205 kph tomorrow early morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it turns north...traverses the Balintang Channel...about 90 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 11: 19.7N 122.2E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Recurves to the north-northeast and northeast across Bashi Channel...weakens further...about 460 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 12: 23.8N 124.6E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns to the east-northeast and accelerates, across the Ryukyus...weakens significantly into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 665 km east-northeast of Okinawa, Japan [2AM MAY 13: 28.7N 134.1E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun May 10, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.7º N Lat 123.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km North-northwest of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 240 km NE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 225 km ESE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 4: 345 km N of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 250 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan.

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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