Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

TS HALONG (COSME) - Final Update

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 20 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 018
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) HAS JUST LEFT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF

RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AS IT WEAKENS...NOW ON ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COOLER

SEAS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE ON THIS SYSTEM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to become an Extratropical Cyclone
while passing to the south of Tokyo, Japan tomorrow morning.

+ EFFECTS: NONE.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is

locally induced by HALONG has weakened and is no longer affecting the

Western portions of the Philippines. Meanwhile, the rest of the

Philippines remains under the ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will

continue to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 20 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 25.7º N...LONGITUDE 134.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 635 KM (343 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 2: 1,395 KM (753 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: ENE @ 45 KPH (25 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 535 KM (290 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME TUE MAY 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HOURS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 MAY: 28.5N 138.3E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 MAY: 33.2N 144.7E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 MAY: 38.0N 151.4E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY POSITION: 24.8N 133.0E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
INCLUDING A 191036Z SSMI IMAGE, SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LIMITED AND THAT THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH TS 05W. AVAILABLE DATA
INDICATES THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TS 05W HAS BEGUN
...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 20 MAY: 24.8N 133.2E / NE @ 35 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
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Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS HALONG (COSME/05W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Monday, May 19, 2008

TS HALONG (COSME) to exit PAR tonight... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 19 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 016
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) SPEEDING UP NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE

PHILIPPINE SEA AND INTO THE DEEP NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN...EXPECTED TO

EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) TONIGHT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to become an Extratropical Cyclone
while passing to the south of Tokyo, Japan tomorrow afternoon.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation remains over the Philippine Sea
and is no longer affecting any areas of the Philippines. All Philippine
storm warning signals now lifted.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is

locally induced by HALONG has weakened and is no longer affecting the

Western portions of the Philippines. Meanwhile, the rest of the

Philippines remains under the ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will

continue to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 19 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 23.0º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 435 KM (235 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 2: 870 KM (470 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 MAY: 30.4N 139.0E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 MAY: 40.6N 151.4E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 66 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY POSITION: 22.1N 128.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL LUZON AND THEN
RE-EMERGING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED TO THE EAST. FAV-
ORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED TS 05W TO REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS
AND HAS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF INCREASED SHEAR. TS 05W
HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (02 GMT) 19 MAY: 21.6N 127.9E / NE @ 33 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS HALONG (COSME) now over the Philippine Sea... [Update #010]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 19 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 014
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) RE-INTENSIFIES OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF

SOUTHERN JAPAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to exit the Philippine Area of

Responsibility (PAR) later tonight. The 1 to 3-day medium range forecast

shows the storm passing to the South of Okinawa, Japan this afternoon.

It shall transform into an Extratropical Cyclone while passing to the

south of Tokyo, Japan tomorrow afternoon, May 20 (Tuesday).

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation is now over the Philippine Sea

and is no longer affecting any areas of the Philippines. All Philippine

storm warning signals now lifted.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is

locally induced by HALONG has weakened and is no longer affecting the

Western portions of the Philippines. Meanwhile, the rest of the

Philippines remains under the ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will

continue to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.6º N...LONGITUDE 126.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 490 KM (265 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 570 KM (308 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 615 KM (332 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 670 KM (360 NM) SSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 28 KPH (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME MON MAY 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NOW LOWERED...

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 MAY: 22.5N 128.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 48 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 26.0N 133.0E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 55 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 MAY: 35.0N 142.7E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 59 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 MAY: 45.1N 152.6E / 55-75 KPH / NE @ 59 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY POSITION: 20.0N 125.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL LUZON AND THEN
RE-EMERGING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED TO THE EAST. FAV-
ORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED TS 05W TO REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS
AND HAS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF INCREASED SHEAR. TS 05W
HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 19 MAY: 20.4N 126.3E / NE @ 30 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

HALONG (COSME) weakens, now over Kalinga... [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 18 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

HALONG (COSME) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...DUE TO THE EFFECTS

OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE LUZON

MAINLAND (TAKE NOTE, STORMS GETS THEIR POWER/ENERGY FROM WARM OCEAN

MOIST AIR)...NOW IN THE VICINITY OF KALINGA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG shall weaken further as it passes over

Cagayan this morning. It shall be over the Philippine Sea this after-

noon. The 1 to 2-day short range forecast shows the storm reintensi-

fying back to Typhoon strength while passing to the South of Okinawa,

Japan tomorrow afternoon (Monday, May 19). By Tuesday morning, HALONG

shall become Extratropical prior in making its second landfall over

Honshu, Japan on Tuesday afternoon, May 20th.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's weakening inner and outer rain bands continues to

dump moderate to heavy rains with strong gale-force winds across much

of Northern Luzon. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must remain

fully implemented at this time. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3

feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering

waves can be expected near and to the north of HALONG's projected path

particularly when the system returns back to Sea or over Cagayan-Isabela

Coastline. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is

locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Visayas

including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces. The

monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to moderate

rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect

the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile,

the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough),

which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in

the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.4º N...LONGITUDE 121.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 50 KM (27 NM) WSW OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 100 KM (55 NM) ESE OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 115 KM (62 NM) SE OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 115 KM (62 NM) SSW OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 5: 135 KM (73 NM) NNE OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 325 KM (175 NM) NORTH OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 19 KPH (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: .. FEET (... METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SUN MAY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO, KALINGA, CAGAYAN, BABUYAN
      GROUP OF ISLANDS, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA,
      IFUGAO, QUIRINO, BENGUET, PANGASINAN, & LA UNION.
#01 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, AURORA & BATANES.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.8N 122.7E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 20.8N 124.8E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 39 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 27.8N 131.8E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 72 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 MAY: 40.4N 143.0E / 65-85 KPH / NNE @ 75 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY POSITION: 17.0N 120.9E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HALONG) HAS BEGUN INTERACTING WITH LAND
AS IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
LUZON OVER THE LINGAYEN GULF. THE SYSTEM STEADILY INTENSIFIED
TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS (150 KPH) PRIOR TO A BRIEF LANDFALL
OVER CAPE BOLINAO. IT HAS SINCED WEAKENED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
TO LAND OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALED THE BRIEF PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 18 MAY: 17.1N 121.0E / NNE @ 13 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART: