Wednesday, July 26, 2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 001

 

Tropical Depression (GORIO) Update Number 001

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 001

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Wednesday 26 July 2017
Next update: Wednesday Afternoon, 26 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The strong low pressure area east of Legazpi City, Albay has developed into Tropical Depression (TD), bearing the local name: "GORIO". Its rainbands are expected to affect the Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region by bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light rain showers and thunderstorms. 

This depression is expected to move north-northeast within the next 24 hours at a speed of 18 km/hr over the central part of the Central Philippine Sea.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 25…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.8N 128.3E), about 353 km east-northeast of San Policarpio, Eastern Samar or 379 km east-northeast of Laoang, Northern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 12 kphtowards the central part of the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Expected to be at the central part of the Central Philippine Sea while maintaining its current wind speed and gust…about 700 km east-northeast of Bagamanoc, Catanduanes [8PM July 26: 16.5N 130.2E @ 55kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY EVENING: Continues to maintain its current intensity but changes its movement from east-northeast to north-northwest…about 728 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM July 27: 18.6N 129.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Typhoon while maintaining its movement of north-northwest…about 347 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM July 28: 21.3N 125.2E @ 150kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 120 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 375 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue July 25, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.8º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km NE of Llorente, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 412 km NE of General MacArthur, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 425 km E of Baras, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 431 km NE of Basey, Samar
Distance 5: 790 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Saturday, April 15, 2017

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Final Update

 

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Final Update

crising05

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crising05-loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 005 [FINAL]

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) has started to weaken as it is about to make landfall along the coast of Eastern Samar tonight.

This depression is expected to maintain its west-northwest track within the next 12 to 24 hours at a faster speed of 26 km/hr and will dissipate further into an Area of Low Pressure upon crossing Samar and Masbate.

*Due to its anticipated dissipation, this is the Final Update on this tropical cyclone.

**Meanwhile, residents living along the path of this weakening depression must still take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 02W (CRISING)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, April 15…0900 GMT.  The center was located approaching the coast of Eastern Samar (near 11.6N 126.3E), about 86 km northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 98 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 15 kphtowards Samar and Masbate.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Eastern Samar between 8-10pm tonightwith a high Strike Probability of 95-99%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte and Masbate – Tonight and Tomorrow (Apr 16).

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of Low Pressure while traversing Samar…about 10 km west-northwest of Calbayog City, Samar [2AM APR 16: 12.1N 124.5E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Remains an LPA as it passes over Rombon Islands…about 15 km north-northwest of Romblon[2PM APR 16: 12.7N 122.2E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:260 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Apr 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.6º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 146 km ENE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 2: 161 km E of Catbalogan City, Samar
Distance 3: 193 km ESE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 310 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 662 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

crising05s

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Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 004

 

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 004

crising04

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 004

Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Next update: Saturday Evening,  15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) has slightly intensified while shrinking in size and has drifted slowly north-northwest during the past 6 hours. Its westernmost rainbands has started to touch the southeastern portion of Eastern Samar.

This depression is expected to resume its west-northwest track within the next 12 to 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr and will make landfall over the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar, over or very close to Borongan City early tonight (between 6 to 8pm). It is forecast to lose strength upon crossing Northern Visayas and dissipate into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) tomorrow morning.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 02W (CRISING)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, April 15…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 11.2N 127.0E), about 180 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 218 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Where is it heading?It was moving North-Northwest @ 11 kphtowards Samar Provinces.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Eastern Samar between 6-8pm tonightwith a high Strike Probability of 80-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte and Masbate – Later Today.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens as it traverses Masbate…about 31 km southwest of Masbate City, Masbate [8AM APR 16: 12.2N 123.4E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Dissipates into an area of Low Pressure (LPA) while over the mountains of Occidental Mindoro…about 46 km south of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro [8PM APR 16: 12.9N 121.1E @ 35kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:265 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Apr 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.2º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 142 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 245 km ESE of Catbalogan City, Samar
Distance 3: 263 km ENE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 4: 393 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 750 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

crising04s

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 003

 

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 003

crising1_2

crising2_2

crising03-loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 003

Issued at: 05:30 AM PhT (21:30 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Next update: Saturday Afternoon,  15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD CRISING is still expected to bring moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Samar, Samar,  Masbate, and northern portion of Leyte before dissipating as a Low Pressure Area (LPA). 

The depression is expected to maintain its west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr and shall make landfall over southern portion of Eastern Samar by Saturday afternoon (between 4 to 5 pm).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is

TD CRISING?

As of 05:00 AM PhT today, April 15…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern portion of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 10.7N 127.3E), about 233 km east-southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 302 km east of Ormoc, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 22 kphtowards Samar-Leyte Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over southern portion of Eastern Samar between 4-5pm Saturday (Apr 15)with a high Strike Probability of 75-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Eastern Visayas, Leyte, and Southern Leyte – beginning Saturday morning.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Sustains its wind speed as it make its landfall over Masbate…about 115 km northeast of Paasi City, Iloilo [2AM APR 16: 11.9N 123.4E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over Southern Occidental Mindoro…[2AM APR 17: 13.4N 119.0 @ 30kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 120 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 350 km (Midget/Very Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Sat Apr 15, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.7º N Lat 127.36º E Lon
Distance 1: 233 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 302 km E of Ormoc, Leyte
Distance 3: 370 km E of Bogo City, Cebu
Distance 4: 454 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 813 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

 

tcws_2

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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