Thursday, February 15, 2018

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] Final Update

 

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] Final Update

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) SANBA {BASYANG} UPDATE NO. 19 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has weakened into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it moves north-northwestward over the western part of the Sulu Sea or near the eastern coast of Southern Palawan. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: This system will weaken further as it moves west-northwestward towards Southern Palawan at a forward speed of 18 km/hr. It is expected to dissipate as it moves across the West Philippine Sea. It will landfall over the eastern coast of Southern Palawan tonight (Feb 15) between 7-8 pm.

*This is the final update on this tropical cyclone.

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] and its Trough will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan including the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is the LPA (Ex-SANBA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 15…0900 GMT. The exposed center was located over the western part of the Sulu Sea (near 8.9N 118.9E), about 119 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 405 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)North-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Southern Palawan tonight (Feb 15) between 7-8 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday morning (Feb 16). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly after crossing Southern Palawan, expected to dissipate as it moves over the West Philippine Sea…about 122 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 9.3N 117.9E @ 30kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 150 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 575 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 438 km W of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 449 km WSW of Iloilo City, Iloilo
Distance 3: 455 km WSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 480 km WSW of Bago City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 673 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 18

 

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 18

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANBA (BASYANG) UPDATE NO. 18

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has been relocated north of its previous position and has started to track westward slowly. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity and shall move west to west-northwestward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr.  The center is forecast to cross Southern Palawan around midnight Friday (Feb 16) and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by Friday morning. 

TD SANBA (BASYANG) and its Trough will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan including the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 15…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.8N 119.2E), about 245 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 420 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Bataraza, Southern Palawan around midnight tonight between 12-1 am, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday morning (Feb 16). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 322 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 16: 8.8N 116.1E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR while passing along the Southern Spratly Islands…about 689 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 17: 8.9N 112.6E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.8º N Lat 119.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 442 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 462 km W of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 466 km W of Pagadian City, Zamboanga Del Sur
Distance 4: 475 km WSW of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 780 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 17

 

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 17

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANBA (BASYANG) UPDATE NO. 17

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has been meandering along the southern part of Sulu Sea during the past 6 hours and remains quasi-stationary. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity and shall move west-northwestward at a forward speed of 15 km/hr.  The center is forecast to cross Extreme Southern Palawan later tonight and shall be over the West Philippine Sea, near the west coast of Extreme Southern Palawan by early Friday morning (Feb 16). 

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan, Kalayaan Island Group and Sulu Archipelago.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 15…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.4N 119.1E), about 288 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 448 km west of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary, towards Extreme Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Extreme Southern Palawan (Balabac Group of Islands) tonight between 9-10 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday early morning (Feb 16). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea or near the western coast of Extreme Southern Palawan…about 315 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 8.4N 116.4E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing along the Spratly Islands…about 661 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 17: 8.7N 112.9E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.4º N Lat 119.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 472 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 483 km WSW of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 492 km WSW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 4: 505 km WSW of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 826 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 15

 

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 15

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANBA (BASYANG) UPDATE NO. 15

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its intensity as it moves south-southwestward over the southern part of the Sulu Sea in the past 6 hours. It threatens to make landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Borneo by Thursday early morning (Feb 15). Its rainbands are currently affecting Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity as it re-emerges over the West Philippine Sea after its landfall over Northern Borneo. It will move westward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr. 

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Palawan, and Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 14…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 6.7N 119.0E), about 343 km west of Lamitan City, Basilan or 468 km west of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving South-Southwest @ 15 kph, towards Northern Borneo.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Thursday afternoon (Feb 15). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Re-emerges over the West Philippine Sea or near the southwestern edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after its landfall over Northern Borneo, maintains its intensity…about 442 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Feb 15: 7.2N 115.9E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 590 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Wed February 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 6.7º N Lat 119.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 510 km SW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 523 km SW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 3: 536 km SW of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 551 km WSW of Ozamis City, Misamis Occidental
Distance 5: 904 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


__._,_.___

Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

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