Monday, February 12, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 04


Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 04


Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward over the eastern part of the South Philippine Sea. It is expected to make landfall over Northeastern Mindanao by Tuesday early morning (Feb 13). Its western rainbands are currently affecting Eastern Mindanao. 

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-northwestward at a forward speed of 32 km/h over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea.

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG) and its Trough and enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will provide light to at times moderate scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, & Eastern Luzon; Bicol Region; Eastern Visayas & Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, February 11…1500 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.2N 133.5E), about 801 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 835 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 31 kph, towards Northeastern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Surigao Del Norte by Tuesday early morning (Feb 13) between 2-3am, with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Mindanao

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it moves across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, expected to landfall over Northeastern Mindanao by Tuesday early morning (Feb 13)…about 194 km east of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [8PM Feb 12: 9.4N 127.9E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

TUESDAY EVENING: Emerges over the northeastern part of the Sulu Sea after traversing the landmass of Northeastern Mindanao and Central Visayas, slightly intensifies…about 54 km west of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [8PM Feb 13: 9.7N 122.0E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies after crossing Central Palawan, emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 157 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 14: 9.6N 117.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 940 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun February 11, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.2º N Lat 133.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 862 km E of Panabo  City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 887 km E of Davao City City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 3: 901 km E of Digos City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 4: 921 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 1586 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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