Monday, February 12, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 06


Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 06





Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its strength as it moved west-southwestward during the past 6 hours…expected to make landfall over Southern Caraga Region on or before noon tomorrow (Feb 13).  Its western outer rainbands continues to spread affecting Eastern Mindanao. 

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to move west-northwestward at a forward speed of 24 km/h across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, and is likely to intensify slightly before it makes landfall.

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, & Eastern Luzon; Bicol Region; Visayas & Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 12…0300 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.2N 131..4E), about 569 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 614 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Southwest @ 21 kph, towards Caraga Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by Tuesday morning (Feb 13) between 11am-12pm, with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern & Northern Mindanao – Today through Tuesday (Feb 13).. 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves WNW across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, prepares to make landfall along the southern portion of Surigao Del Sur…about 79 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [8AM Feb 13: 8.3N 127.0E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Emerges over Sulu Sea after traversing the landmass of Northern Mindanao and the northern portion of Zamboanga Del Norte, weakens slightly…about 202 km WSW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [8AM Feb 14: 8.8N 120.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

THURSDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies after crossing the Southern Palawan, emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it approaches the Kalayaan Island Group…about 275 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 15: 9.2N 116.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 685 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon February 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.2º N Lat 131.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 631 km E of Panabo  City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 656 km E of Davao City City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 3: 674 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 691 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 1395 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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