Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 10


Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 10





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) is now emerging over the Bohol Sea after making landfall over Surigao Provinces this morning. The storm is expected to cross Bohol, Southern Cebu and Southern Negros this afternoon.  Its thick inner rainbands continues to spread  across the whole of the Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) and shall move westward at a speed of 28 km/h. Its center shall be over the western part of Sulu Sea by Wednesday morning (Feb 14). 

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring moderate to extreme rains with thunderstorms and gusty winds across Bicol Region, Romblon, Palawan, Visayas, and Northern Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 13…0300 GMT. The center was located over the northeastern part of Bohol Sea or near  the southern coast of Southern Leyte (near 9.8N 125.1E), about 46 km west of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte or 135 km east of Tagbilaran City, Bohol.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 28 kph, towards Bohol-Southern Cebu-Southern Negros Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Bohol this afternoon between 1-2 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Visayas, Palawan, Bicol Region, & Romblon – Today through Wednesday morning (Feb 14). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None..

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after crossing the landmass of Southern Visayas, emerges over Sulu Sea, just northwest of Cagayancillo Island…about 132 km southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 14: 9.2N 119.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the southern portion of Central Palawan, re-intensifies into a TS…about 360 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 15: 10.1N 115.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR, just west of Kalayaan Island Group, weakens slightly…about 710 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 16: 11.6N 112.5E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time..

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 785 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue February 13, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 106 km NNW of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 2: 131 km ESE of Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu
Distance 3: 140 km NNW of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur
Distance 4: 140 km ESE of Mandaue City, Cebu
Distance 5: 689 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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