Monday, February 12, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 07


Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 07


Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its intensity in the past 6 hours as it moves westward across the central part of the South Philippine Sea. It is expected to landfall over the eastern coast of Surigao del Sur by Tuesday morning (Feb 13) between 7-8 am. Its western rainbands are currently affecting Eastern, Northern, & Central Mindanao & Eastern & Central Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity as it moves west-northwestward at a forward speed of 30 km/hr. It will emerge near the northern coast of Misamis Oriental after interacting with the land mass of Northeastern Mindanao.

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, & Eastern Luzon; Bicol Region; Romblon; Visayas; & Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 12…0900 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.1N 129.8E), about 393 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 442 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 29 kph, towards Caraga Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by Tuesday morning (Feb 13) between 7-8 am, with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern, Central, & Northern Mindanao; Visayas; Bicol Region; & Romblon – Today through Tuesday morning (Feb 13). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its intensity as it emerges near the northern coast of Misamis Oriental after crossing Northeastern Mindanao…about 23 km northwest of El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental [2PM Feb 13: 8.7N 124.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall as a Tropical Storm (TS) over the eastern coast of Central Palawan…about 77 km south-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Feb 14: 9.3N 118.6E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 491 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Feb 15: 10.1N 114.3E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 910 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Mon February 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.1º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 458 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 481 km ESE of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur
Distance 3: 512 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 520 km E of Kidapawan  City, North Cotabato
Distance 5: 1265 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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