Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 12


Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 12


Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has weakened into a Tropical Depression (TD) after its landfall over Southern Cebu and Negros Oriental. It moved west-southwestward over the eastern part of the Sulu Sea or near the southwestern coast of Negros Oriental in the past 6 hours. It is expected to landfall over Central Palawan tomorrow (Feb 14) between 1-2 pm.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) will emerge over the West Philippine Sea after its landfall over Central Palawan. It will maintain its intensity as it moves westward at a forward speed of 29 km/hr.

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring heavy to extreme rains with thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Western, Northern, and Eastern  Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, February 13…1500 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Sulu Sea or near the southwestern coast of Negros Oriental (near 9.2N 122.6E), about 39 km southwest of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental or 59 km south-southeast of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Southwest @ 27 kph, towards Cuyo-Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Central Palawan tomorrow (Feb 14) between 1-2 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 70-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Western, Eastern, and Northern Mindanao – Today through Wednesday afternoon (Feb 14). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after its landfall over Central Palawan…about 187 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 14: 9.7N 117.1E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

THURSDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Tropical Depression (TD), over the West Philippine Sea…about 569 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 15: 10.3N 113.6E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 895 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue February 13, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.2º N Lat 122.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 78 km W of Dumaguete  City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 103 km SSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 111 km NW of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 4: 142 km SSW of La Carlota  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 621 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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