Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 08


Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 08


Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its intensity as it moves west-northwestward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea. It is expected to landfall over the eastern coast of Surigao del Sur by Tuesday afternoon (Feb 13) between 12-1 pm. Its rainbands are currently affecting Eastern, Northern, & Central Mindanao & Eastern & Central Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves west-northwestward at a speed of 25 km/h. It will emerge near the northern coast of Misamis Occidental after crossing the landmass of Eastern and Northern Mindanao. 

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring moderate to extreme rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region; Romblon; Visayas; & Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, February 12…1500 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.6N 128.5E), about 253 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 297 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 26 kph, towards Caraga Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by Tuesday afternoon (Feb 13) between 12-1 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern, Central, & Northern Mindanao; Visayas; Bicol Region; & Romblon – Today through Tuesday afternoon (Feb 13). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after crossing the landmass of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, emerges near the northern coast of Misamis Occidental…about 38 km east of Oroquieta City, Misamis Occidental [8PM Feb 13: 8.8N 123.8E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Landfalls over Southern Palawan as a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 160 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 14: 9.0N 117.7E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 528 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 15: 10.6N 114..0E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 710 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon February 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.6º N Lat 128..5º E Lon
Distance 1: 312 km E of Panabo  City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 339 km E of Davao City City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 3: 360 km ENE of Digos City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 4: 368 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 1122 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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