Super Typhoon MANGKHUT Update No. 03

SUPER TYPHOON MANGKHUT UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Tuesday, 11 September 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook	MANGKHUT intensifies rapidly and becomes the 4th Super Typhoon (STY) of the 2018 Season. Currently slowing down while maintaining its westerly track across the Western Pacific Ocean, and could pose a serious threat to Northern Luzon this weekend. 24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT is forecast to continue moving westward towards the Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr. It is then expected to intensify further, entering the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday afternoon or evening (Sept 12). This typhoon is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 48 to 72 hours (2 to 3 days).
Where is MANGKHUT?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 11…0900 GMT. The eye was located over the sea west of the Northern Mariana Islands (near 13.8°N 139.1°E), about 612 km west of Hagatna, Guam or 1,611 km east of Virac, Catanduanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 235 kph near the center…Gustiness: 285 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 23 kph, towards the Easternmost Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):* >>None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
5-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: About to enter the easterm border of PAR…still intensifying while moving westward across the Western Pacific Ocean…about 1,222 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Sept 12: 14.2°N 135.5°E @ 250kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Already inside the PAR, as it maintains its Super Typhoon status…turns West-Northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea…about 724 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Sept 13: 15.6°N 130.6°E @ 250kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly, but maintains its Super Typhoon classification while moving west-northwestward, closer to Extreme Northern Luzon…about 364 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Sept 14: 17.4°N 125.8°E @ 235kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: No longer a Super Typhoon as it traverses the Babuyam Group of Islands on a west-northwesterly track…about 101 km north-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM Sept 15: 19.4°N 120.4°E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of PAR as it bears down the coast of Guangdong, China…about 142 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 16: 21.2°N 114.6°E @ 170kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 565 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km from the center
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue September 11, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.8ºN Lat 139.1ºE Lon Distance 1: 1575 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 1664 km E of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 3: 1720 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 4: 1851 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora Distance 5: 1946 km E of Metro Manila, PH 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.2ºN 135.5ºE (STY) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.6ºN 130.6ºE (STY) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.4ºN 125.8ºE (STY) 96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.4ºN 120.4ºE (TY) 120 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.2ºN 114.6ºE (TY)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com

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