Tropical Depression 27W Update No. 01

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W UPDATE NO. 01 Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Monday, 10 September 2018 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 10 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook	The small but strong disturbance (LPA 90W) which has been lingering over the Bashi Channel since Saturday, has intensified into Tropical Depression 27W. This system is currently bringing occasional to torrential rains and thundestorms across Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces and the Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands. 24-hr Outlook: TD 27W is expected move west to west-southwestward across the Bashi Channel at a forward speed of 11 km/hr, and will pass close to the north of Itbayat, Batanes tonight. It is forecast to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow, Tuesday morning (Sept 11). Meanwhile, Typhoon MANGKHUT is fast approaching the Northern Mariana Islands and will pass very close to Guam later this afternoon. At 5am today, the eye was located about 2,580 km East of Bicol Region, Philippines (14.6°N 148.1°E) with maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center with higher gusts. It shall enter the eastern border of the PAR by Wednesday afternoon (Sept 12). Please refer to our 24-hr. StormWatch regarding this system.
Where is 27W?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 10…2100 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the Bashi Channel (near 21.9°N 122.3°E), about 133 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or 163 km north of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 10 kph, towards the Northern Batanes-Bashi Channel Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):* >> Ilocos Provinces and the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	MONDAY AFTERNOON: Drifting Southwestward across the Bashi Channel as it intensifies slightly…about 47 km north of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Sept 10: 21.2°N 121.9°E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates westward across the western part of Bashi Channel as it is about to exit PAR…about 159 km south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Sept 11: 21.2°N 120.3°E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is outside of PAR or over the Northern part of the South China Sea…about 354 km southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Sept 12: 20.8°N 117.5°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon September 10, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.9ºN Lat 122.3ºE Lon Distance 1: 298 km NNE of Calayan Island, Cagayan Distance 2: 356 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan Distance 3: 399 km NNE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte Distance 4: 449 km NNE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte Distance 5: 825 km N of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.2ºN 120.3ºE (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.8ºN 117.5ºE (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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