Typhoon MANGKHUT Update No. 01

TYPHOON MANGKHUT UPDATE NO. 01 Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Monday, 10 September 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 11 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon MANGKHUT has gained more strength and is now starting to leave the Northern Mariana Islands, after its eye passed through Rota Island a few hours ago. Typhoon-Force Winds with intense downpour have been felt all throughout the commonwealth state. 24 to 48-hr Outlook: Typhoon (TY) MANGKHUT will continue moving west-southwest to westward towards the Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 23 km/hr. It is then forecast to enter the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday evening (Sept 12). This typhoon is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 72 hours (3 days).
Where is MANGKHUT?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 10…0900 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of the Northern Mariana Islands (near 14.2°N 144.9°E), about 81 km north of Hagatna, Guam or 2,237 km east of Bicol Region, Philippines.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 29 kph, towards the Easternmost Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):* >>None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
5-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Still moving westward across the Western Pacific Ocean, in between the PAR line and Guam, as it continues to intensify…about 1,632 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Sept 11: 13.7°N 140.5°E @ 190kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the eastern border of the PAR on a West-Northwest track, while nearing Super Typhoon Classification…about 1,172 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Sept 12: 14.3°N 136.0°E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Super Typhoon while inside the PAR, moving Northwestward across the Northern Part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 807 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM Sept 13: 15.7°N 131.6°E @ 225kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying as it approaches Extreme Northern Luzon, while maintaining its Northwesterly track across Southern Part of the North Philippine Sea…about 511 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Sept 14: 18.0°N 127.1°E @ 235kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it passes across the Batanes Island Group, still on a Northwesterly track…about 33 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 15: 20.7°N 122.2°E @ 225kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon September 10, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.2ºN Lat 144.9ºE Lon Distance 1: 2129 km E of Samar, PH Distance 2: 2462 km E of Aurora, PH Distance 3: 2474 km ESE of Cagayan, PH Distance 4: 2527 km ESE of Batanes, PH Distance 5: 2567 km E of Metro Manila, PH 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.7ºN 140.5ºE (TY) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.3ºN 136.0ºE (TY) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.7ºN 131.6ºE (STY) 96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.0ºN 127.1ºE (STY) 120 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.7ºN 122.2ºE (STY)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com

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