Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 07
SUPER TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 07Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018 | |
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| Current Status and Outlook | Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) has slightly accelerated and maintained its strength over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. This howler continues to threaten Northern Luzon, with typhoon hazards over the area beginning Friday (Sept 14). 24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) will move west-northwest across the central part of Central Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 21 km/hr. It is then expected to slightly weaken by Thursday afternoon (Sept 13) while over the Central Philippine Sea, but still above STY threshold. This very intense typhoon is expected to start affecting Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon beginning late Friday (Sept 14). Two days to go before the effects will commence, kindly take all necessary precautions. |
| Where is MANGKHUT? | As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, September 12…1500 GMT. The clear eye was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.3°N 133.2°E), about 975 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 1,083 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur. |
| How strong is it? | Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 310 kph. |
| Past Movement (06 hrs) | West @ 25 kph, towards the Central Part of the Central Philippine Sea. |
| Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) | :: Over the Northeastern part of Cagayan, between 5 to 6 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%. |
| What Philippine areas will be directly affected? | Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >>Northern Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Islands – beginning Friday Afternoon (Sept 14). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): |
| Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ | :: Coastal Areas of Northern and Central Luzon – beginning Friday (Sept 14). |
| 4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** | THURSDAY EVENING: Slightly weakens while moving WNW across the central part of Central Philippine Sea…about 558 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes [8PM Sept 13: 15.3°N 129.2°E @ 250kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY EVENING: Still weakening while over the north-west part of the Central Philippine Sea, passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 207 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [8PM Sept 14: 17.4°N 124.3°E @ 235kph]. Confidence Level:MEDIUM. SATURDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Typhoon after hitting Extreme Northern Luzon…will be located over the western part of Balintang Channel as it exits the northwest boundary of the PAR…about 262 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Sept 15: 19.1°N 118.3°E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SUNDAY EVENING: Already outside of PAR, traversing the northern part of the South China Sea, approaching Southern China…about 266 km southwest of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [8PM Sept 16: 20.7°N 112.3°E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. |
| Other Storm Info | > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 700 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 215 km from the center |
| Additional Information | Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed September 12, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.3ºN Lat 133.2ºE Lon Distance 1: 955 km ENE of Tacloban City, Leyte Distance 2: 961 km E of Bato, Catanduanes Distance 3: 975 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes Distance 4: 993 km ENE of Baybay City, Leyte Distance 5: 1308 km E of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.3ºN 129.2ºE (STY) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.4ºN 124.3ºE (STY) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.1ºN 118.3ºE (TY) 96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.7ºN 112.3ºE (TY) |
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. | |
Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines
https://weatherph.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Ompong18_07_signals.png
Posted by: T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com
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