Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) Update No. 08

SUPER TYPHOON MANGKHUT (OMPONG) UPDATE NO. 08 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 September 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is now considered as the strongest for 2018 as it gained more strength while maintaining its westerly course across the Central Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. This howler is now similar in strength to the likes of ANGELA (ROSING) of 1995, ZEB (ILIANG) of 1998, and recently HAIMA (LAWIN) of 2016 to name a few. Areas in Northern and Central Luzon must take full precautionary measures as it is only 2 days before it makes landfall somewhere in Eastern Cagayan. 24-hr Outlook: STY MANGKHUT (OMPONG) is expected to move west-northwestward across the central part of Central Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 20 km/hr. It is likely to slightly weaken on Friday (Sept 14) while over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea, but still above STY threshold. This dangerous typhoon is expected to start affecting Northern and Central Luzon beginning late Friday (Sept 14).
Where is MANGKHUT (OMPONG)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 13…2100 GMT. The clear round eye was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.4°N 131.9°E), about 836 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 944 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 265 kph near the center…Gustiness: 325 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 23 kph, towards the Central Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Over the Eastern part of Cagayan, between 4 to 5 AM local time on Saturday, Sept 15 – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):* >>Northern & Central Luzon – beginning tomorrow, Friday afternoon (Sept 14). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> Northern & Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning tomorrow, late afternoon or Evening of Friday (Sept 14).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: Whole Coastal Areas of Eastern, Northern and Central Luzon – beginning tomorrow, Friday (Sept 14).
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly weakens while turning WNW-ward across the central part of Central Philippine Sea…about 458 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Sept 14: 15.6°N 128.1°E @ 260kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal Super Typhoon as it prepares to make landfall over Cagayan, while maintaining its WNW-ward track…about 84 km north-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Sept 15: 17.7°N 122.7°E @ 235kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon. Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after traversing Extreme Northern Luzon….about 384 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Sept 16: 19.2°N 117.1°E @ 190kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 907 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 895 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu September 13, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.4ºN Lat 131.9ºE Lon Distance 1: 893 km E of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 2: 823 km E of Bato, Catanduanes Distance 3: 866 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 4: 1075 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora Distance 5: 1167 km E of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.6ºN 128.1ºE (STY) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.7ºN 122.7ºE (STY) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.2ºN 117.1ºE (TY)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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