Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI [04W/0704]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 09 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 10 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 10 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI {pronounced as "Mun-yi"} (04W) STILL
TRACKING FAST TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA, TURNS WEST-NORTH-
WEST AS ITS WIND SPEED REACHED 100 KM/HR.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to continue intensi-WEST AS ITS WIND SPEED REACHED 100 KM/HR.
fying under favorable atmospheric conditions in the coming
hours and days. This storm shall continue moving in a gene-
rally steady WNW to NW'ly track for the next 3 to 4 days.
It shall be passing about 300 km to the NE of Yap Island
just after midnight, tomorrow July 10. Majority of the com-
puter forecast models continues to show a Taiwan-Okinawa
path sometime July 13-14. Based on its current speed, MAN-YI
is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility
(PAR) around 3 AM Wednesday morning, July 11 as a 165-km/hr
Category 2 Typhoon.
+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large and
continues to cover the whole Micronesia & Marianas with its
outer cloud bands reaching as far as Saipan to the North &
Palau to the West. Overcast skies with moderate to heavy
rains & gale-force winds of 55-65 km/hr will continue to
prevail tonight & tomorrow.
+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: The advance 3 to 5-day long-
range forecast suggests a surge of moderate to strong South-
west (SW) Monsoon which is likely to affect the Philippines
sometime July 12-14 (Thu-Sat) due to the passage of MAN-YI
over the Philippine Sea, which is expected to enhance the
Monsoon system. Cloudy skies with intermittent passing
rains or thunderstorms can be expected across the country
w/ SW'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher, becoming more intense
along Western Luzon & Western Visayas including Metro
Manila. Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates in the
coming days.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 09 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.0º N...LONGITUDE 140.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 510 KM (275 NM) WSW OF HAGATNA, GUAM
DISTANCE 2: 340 KM (185 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP IS.
DISTANCE 3: 1,815 KM (980 NM) ESE OF BICOL REGION, PH
DISTANCE 4: 2,145 KM (1,160 NM) SE OF CAGAYAN, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ULITHI-PHILIPPINE SEA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 670 KM (360 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME JULY 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 JULY: 11.9N 139.4E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY: 13.0N 137.5E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 JULY POSITION: 10.7N 141.3E.
^ANIMATED MULITSPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
(TS) MAN-YI IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EXTREMELY LARGE
CIRCULATION THAT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO
INCREASED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, AND A MICROWAVE PASS IN-
DICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. BASED ON THE
CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION, TS MAN-YI HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, THIS SPEED MAY BE
FAST DUE TO PREVIOUS UNCERTAINTY OF THE LLCC POSITION...(more info)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
____________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (04W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (04W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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