for Sunday, 07 August 2011 [6:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 07 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #052/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) maintains its fast northerly movement towards the Yellow Sea...expected to pass near Shandong Peninsula tomorrow.
MUIFA will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains & rough seas along Palawan, Mindoro, Northern & Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Northeastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun August 07 2011
Location of Center: 34.1º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 249 km WNW of Cheju Is., South Korea
Distance 2: 398 km NNE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 519 km NNE of Ningbo, China
Distance 4: 396 km SE of Qingdao, China
Distance 5: 479 km SW of Seoul, S.Korea
Distance 6: 571 km SSW of Pyongyang, N.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 970 km (525 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Sun Aug 07
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving Northward into the Yellow Sea & pass close to the easternmost handle of the Shandong Peninsula within the next 12 to 24 hours. After 24 hours, this system will continue to decay...making landfall along Liaoning Province by Monday evening. It will recurve towards the NE as it dissipates over land on Tuesday through Wednesday along Jilin & Heilongjiang Provinces. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Weakens slightly as it moves closer to the Shandong Peninsula...about 283 km ESE of Qingdao, China [2AM AUG 08: 35.7N 123.4E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Approaching Liaoning Province...weakens further...about 227 km WSW of Pyongyang, North Korea [2PM AUG 08: 38.4N 123.2E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving over land, along the rugged terrain of Liaoning Province, China...barely a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 266 km NW of Pyongyang, North Korea 2AM AUG 09: 40.7N 123.6E @ 65kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a Tropical Depression as it continues to dissipate over Liaoning Province (Northeastern China)...about 416 km NNW of Pyongyang, North Korea [2PM AUG 09: 42.7N 125.1E @ 45kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to lose strength within the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 465 kilometers (250 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 970 kilometers (525 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over land...just a remnant low along Jilin & Heilongjiang Provinces...accelerating ENE towards Eastern Russia [2PM AUG 10: 44.8N 129.6E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay especially along the western quadrant. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-117 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Western Coast of South Korea & the Southern Yellow Sea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, East China & Northern Yellow Sea, Western Kyushu, Shandong Peninsula, North & South Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center or over the Eyewall of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 07 AUGUST POSITION: 33.1N 123.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST
OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE MAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 07/0522Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC AND HAS
BECOME SHALLOWER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. 07/00Z UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MUIFA IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. CURRENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK (10-15
KNOTS) AND INCREASES NORTH OF TS 11W. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH DECREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A REGION OF DRYER AIR IS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF TS 11W FROM EASTERN CHINA. TS
MUIFA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (< 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS), INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (> 30 KNOTS), AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN CHINA BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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