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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Fri 26 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) gaining more strength as it moves NW slowly...remains over the open sea.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Chichi Jima & Japan mainland should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Fri August 26 2011
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 494 km SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 709 km WNW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 660 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,322 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 437 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NW Slowly
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Fri Aug 26
TALAS (15W) is expected to move on a slow Northerly track throughout the forecast period with increasing intensity. This system will remain over open waters. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon as it moves northward slowly...about 351 km SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8AM AUG 27: 22.3N 139.2E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify while maintaining its northward track...about 245 km WSW of Iwo To [8AM AUG 28: 23.7N 139.2E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify while over the open waters of the Western Pacific...passing well to the WNW of Iwo To [8AM AUG 29: 25.3N 139.2E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TALAS' (15W) circulation continues to improve with convective cloudiness on all quadrants except the northwestern part. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Marianas & Iwo To. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 20.5N 139.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251215Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER SOUTHERN,
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOWER 10 TO 15 KNOT CENTRAL
WINDS, INDICATIVE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT PASS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD BETWEEN TWO
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU
96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TS
15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS
INITIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN, WHICH IS AN OUTLIER PULLING THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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