for Wednesday, 10 August 2011 [5:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 10 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 10 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 13W (UNNAMED) slightly intensified as it moves slowly northward across the open sea...not expected to affect any land areas.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 13W (UNNAMED)
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed August 10 2011
Location of Center: 24.9º N Lat 136.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 474 km West of Iwo To, Japan
Distance 2: 475 km WSW of Bonin Island
Distance 3: 899 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Sea South of Japan
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 125 mm (Med-High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Wed Aug 10
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
13W is expected to remain a Tropical Depression (TD) and dissipate throughout the forecast period. The track of this TD will start recurving towards the NNE to NE within the next 12 to 24 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Maintains its strength as it starts moving NNE...about 419 km West of Bonin Island [2AM AUG 11: 26.3N 136.8E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Continuing on its NNE track w/ no change in strength...about 366 NW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 11: 28.0N 137.7E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns more NE-ward...about 358 km NW of Bonin Island 2AM AUG 12: 29.0N 138.7E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to dissipate while moving NE-ward...about 390 km NNW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 12: 29.9N 140.0E @ 45kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 13W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will maintain its strength for the next 24 hours before dissipating.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to dissipate over water...weakens into an area of low pressure [2PM AUG 13: 31.0N 142.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
13W's (UNNAMED) circulation holding on as it moves into an area of unfavorable conditions. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 80 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 125 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 10 AUGUST POSITION: 24.5N 136.6E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLEAR TREND TOWARDS BETTER ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN BODY OF
CONVECTION, WHICH IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), IS COMING CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM CORE AND DEVELOPING
MORE PRONOUNCED CURVATURE. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC ARE ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, AND THE LATEST AMSU
TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM ANOMALY AT 8 KFT.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A 100116Z ASCAT IMAGE
AND A PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
VENTING INTO A TUTT CELL SOUTH OF KYUSHU, WHICH IS AIDING
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 28 DEGREES. TD 13W EXISTS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD FIELD OF
DRY AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE DRY LAYER, WHICH IS
STEMMING FROM A TUTT-INDUCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, EXISTS ABOVE 5
KFT. SURFACE REPORTS FROM THE RYUKYUS SHOW NORMAL DEW POINTS,
INDICATING ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. TD
13W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS EASTWARD AND WESTERLIES STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN JAPAN. AN INCREASE IN VWS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE EASTERLY
TURN, AND TD 13W WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER NEAR TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED, BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH VORTEX JUMPING
TOWARDS A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM OVER MAINLAND JAPAN. THE JTWC FORECAST
DEVIATES FROM CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 AND CONTINUES THE TRACK IN LINE
WITH EGRR AND GFS, WHICH PRESENT A MORE COHERENT SOLUTION...more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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