for Tuesday, 30 August 2011 [1:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 30 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) gaining forward speed northward...Rainbands continues to affect Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue August 30 2011
Location of Center: 25.5º N Lat 140.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 152 km NW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 149 km SW of Bonin Island
Distance 3: 260 km SW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,224 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,134 km South of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM JST Tue Aug 30
TALAS (15W) is expected to move towards the NW during the next 24 hours & intensify slightly. A turn back to the north is forecast during the next 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Intensifying while turning NW'ly...about 292 km WNW of Bonin Island [11AM AUG 31: 27.3N 138.2E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Returns to its usual Northward track across the open sea...no change in strength...about 742 km SSW of Tokyo [8AM SEP 01: 29.2N 137.9E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It is likely to intensify slightly within the day. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) circulation continues to improved with the eyewall wrapping closer to the large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - affecting & moving into Bonin Island. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Chichi Jima & Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 110 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 30 AUGUST POSITION: 25.3N 139.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 29/2139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS THE STRONGEST BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALVES
OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHALLOWER CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AND IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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