for Sunday, 28 August 2011 [12:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
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NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 28 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) weakens to a Category 2 storm as it slightly gained speed. Its core has started to move away from the Batanes Group. Typhoon Conditions still prevailing across Batanes Islands but will start to recede later today. Inner rainbands spreading across Ilocos Norte, Northern Cagayan, Bashi Channel & the Southern Coast of Taiwan.
This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across Western Luzon, bringing passing occasional rains w/ strong winds.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China & Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA & MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Eye: 20.8º N Lat 121.3º E Lon {Radar Fix}
Distance 1: 56 km West of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 81 km NW of Mahatao, Batanes
Distance 3: 82 km NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 140 km South of Orchid Is., Taiwan
Distance 5: 144 km SSE of Hengchun, Taiwan
Distance 6: 168 km North of Calayan Island
Distance 7: 217 km South of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 8: 223 km SSE of Kaohsiung City
Distance 9: 270 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 10: 193 km SSW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 11: 298 km NNE of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Now [until 5PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 28
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to turn NNW during the next 24 to 36 hours...and may still re-intensify a little prior in making landfall over Southern Taiwan. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will approach shores of Southern Taiwan tomorrow morning (Monday)...and cross the mountainous terrain of Southern Taiwan late Monday morning until the evening. NANMADOL shall weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it bends NW-ward into Taiwan Strait. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
THIS EVENING (SUN): Re-intensifies into a Category 3 storm...moving NNW along the Bashi Channel, approaching the southern coast of Taiwan...about 71 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM AUG 28: 21.1N 121.2E @ 185kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (MON): Weakens to Category 2...just along the shores of Southern Taiwan...about 79 km ESE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8AM AUG 29: 22.3N 121.0E @ 160kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (MON): Over Western Taiwan...downgraded to a Tropical Storm...about 111 km North of Kaohsiung [8PM AUG 29: 23.6N 120.3E @ 75kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Moving NW off Taiwan Strait...gaining a little bit of strength...about 171 km ESE of Xiamen City, China [8AM AUG 30: 24.0N 119.7E @ 95kph]. SOUTHERN TAIWAN: Along the shores, near Taitung City [ETA: between 5:00 AM to 11:00 PM Local Time Tomorrow].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations in its strength can still be expected today. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NANMADOL remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just along the shores of Fujian Province, China...prepares to make landfall [8AM AUG 31: 24.5N 118.7E @ 75kph]. THURSDAY MORNING: Dissipating over Fujian Province...downgraded to a weak Tropical Depression (TD) [8AM SEP 01: 24.5N 117.3E @ 45kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure over Eastern Guangdong, China [8AM SEP 02: 24.1N 115.8E @ 30kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation continues to have some difficulty in re-intensifying over the Luzon Strait due to a light 15-km/hr Easterly Wind Shear blowing aloft. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Just WNW of the Batanes Group. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - affecting & moving across Batanes Group of Islands & the Bashi Channel. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Balintang & Babuyan Channels, Calayan & Babuyan Group of Islands & the southern shores of Taiwan . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Northern Luzon & Taiwan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, Southern & Eastern Taiwan. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southeastern China, Taiwan, Northern & Western Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 28 AUGUST POSITION: 20.5N 121.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND TY 14W IS NOW STRUGGLING TO
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED AND A 272206Z SSMIS IMAGE IS
SHOWING ELONGATED BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF FROM
PGTW AND TWO SURFACE REPORTS FROM NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY IDEAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION,
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 31 TO 32 DEGREES AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BELOW 05 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MILD
SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, BUT OTHERWISE
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN TAIWAN SHOW THAT THE
OUTERMOST RAINBANDS HAVE CROSSED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ARE
NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLAND. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A TIME
SERIES OF SOUNDINGS FROM THE SOUTHERN RYUKUS SHOWS MILD HEIGHT RISES
AND SOUTHEASTERLIES BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED UP TO 20 KFT, WHICH
ARE INDICATIVE OF A BUILDING RIDGE THAT WILL ELIMINATE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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