for Thursday, 11 August 2011 [6:40 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 11 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 13W (UNNAMED) may reach Tropical Storm threshold today...still tracking north across the open waters of the Western Pacific.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 13W (UNNAMED)
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu August 11 2011
Location of Center: 26.9º N Lat 136.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 489 km WNW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 570 km NW of Iwo To, Japan
Distance 3: 585 km West of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 825 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Sea South of Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Thu Aug 11
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
13W is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours before dissipating over water within the next 24 to 48 hours. The track of this TD will start recurving towards the NNE to NE within the next 12 to 24 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (THU): Upgraded to a minimal Tropical Storm as it turns NNE...about 474 km NW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 11: 27.7N 136.4E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Downgraded into a Tropical Depression while moving NE...about 437 NW of Bonin Island [2AM AUG 12: 28.8N 137.4E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Dissipating over the open sea of the Western Pacific...about 431 km NNW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 12: 29.8N 138.7E @ 45kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over water...just a remnant low pressure...about 477 km NNW of Bonin Island [2AM AUG 13: 30.7N 140.0E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 13W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system may still intensify, reaching Tropical Storm treshold within the next 6 to 12 hours.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
13W's (UNNAMED) circulation getting better organized but remain a small, compact cyclone. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 11 AUGUST POSITION: 26.6N 136.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 101706Z AND 101719Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW THAT THE
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 13W IS CONCENTRATED JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 101657Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE AND LIES JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 13W IS UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE CENTER WHICH IS PROVIDING A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TD 13W.
CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. AS TD 13W
ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED STEERING
ANTICYCLONE, A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WILL
OCCUR AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES TRANSIENTLY ENHANCED VIA
INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24, TD
13W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM A STRONG
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. BY TAU 48, TD 13W WILL DISSIPATE
OVER WATER. THE CONSENSUS OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SKEWED BY
ECMWF AND GFDN AS THEY TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD WHICH MAY BE DUE
TO CONFUSION BETWEEN TD 13W AND A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FORMING NEAR
CENTRAL JAPAN. THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE LAST JTWC
FORECAST AND FAVORS THE NOGAPS AND EGRR SOLUTIONS WHICH DROP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER BY TAU 48 DUE TO DISSIPATION...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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