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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 06 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #046/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) weakened to Category 1 as it moves away from Okinawa...receding conditions expected over the island.
MUIFA will continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along a wide-swath of Western Philippines from Western Mindanao, Western Visayas, Palawan, & up to Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat August 06 2011
Location of Eye: 26.9º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 168 km NW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 168 km WNW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 165 km WNW of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 334 km NE of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 506 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 830 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 568 km SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 8: 668 km SE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Coast of Eastern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 963 km (520 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Sat Aug 06
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving NW, farther away from Okinawa towards the East China-Yellow Sea Area. After 24 hours, it will regain some a little bit of intensity as it moves into an area of slightly warmer seas w/ favorable ocean heat content. The core shall pass near the eastern seaboard of Northern Zhejiang & Jiangsu Province, just east of Metropolitan Shanghai on Sunday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Moving farther away from Okinawa...about 292 km NW of Okinawa City [2PM AUG 06: 27.9N 125.3E @ 150kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Regains Category 2 strength as it passes to the east of Zhejiang Province, China...about 261 km East of Ningbo, China [2AM AUG 07: 29.7N 124.2E @ 160kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1 as it accelerates NNW...passing offshore of Jiangsu Province...about 196 km ENE of Shanghai, China 2PM AUG 07: 31.9N 123.3E @ 150kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Decaying as it moves across the Yellow Sea...about 389 km NNE of Shanghai, China [2AM AUG 08: 34.6N 122.4E @ 140kph].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the NE coast of Zhejiang Province, China...passing about 196 km ENE of Shanghai [ETA: between 1:00-3:00 PM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 963 kilometers (520 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS)...making landfall along Liaoning Province...turns North to NNE-ward [2AM AUG 09: 39.3N 121.8E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) while moving NE over the land terrain of Liaoning & Jilin Provinces [2AM AUG 10: 43.4N 123.8E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated into an area of low pressure while over land, along Heilongjiang boundary, China. [2AM AUG 11: 47.9N 129.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation has started to decay especially along the northern quadrant. The typhoon continues to maintain a large ragged, cloud-filled eye. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE - over water (WNW of Okinawa)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EASTERN EYEWALL - over water (WNW of Okinawa)...no longer affecting Okinawa. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Okinawa. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Eastern Coast of China (Zhejiang), Naje, Ryukyus, & Ishigakijima Islands, & East China Sea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Naje, Okinawa, Ryukyus, & Ishigakijima Islands, & East China Sea...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Zhejiang Province of China, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today & tomorrow. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern China, Taiwan, Ishigakijima and other nearby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES (Western Luzon down to Western Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 06 AUGUST POSITION: 26.5N 126.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH SYMMETRICAL EVEN AS CENTRAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP AND CLOUD TOPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE JAPAN
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
TO REFLECT A ROBUST LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BENEATH THE CLOUD
SIGNATURES. OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA AB AND NAHA AIRPORT INDICATE
RISING PRESSURE WITH VEERING AND WEAKENING WINDS AS THE TYPHOON
MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TY 11W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS
ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) REMAINS FAVORABLE IN THE
INTERIM. TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 EAST OF SHANGHAI
AS MOISTURE GETS BLOCKED BY THE CHINESE LANDMASS AND AS OHC DIPS.
SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN THE OHC IN THE GULF OF BOHAI AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING BY TAU 72 AS TY 11W
RECURVES INTO NORTHEAST CHINA AND WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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