for Friday, 05 August 2011 [5:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 05 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #044/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) has started moving NW away from Okinawa...Eastern Eyewall buffeting the island with typhoon force-winds, heavy rains & storm surge.
MUIFA will continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along a wide-swath of Western Philippines from Western Mindanao, Western Visayas, Palawan, & up to Western Luzon Puerto Galera, Mindoro & Boracay.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri August 05 2011
Location of Eye: 25.9º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 77 km WSW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 97 km WSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 104 km SW of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 322 km ENE of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 551 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 788 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 700 km SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 8: 804 km SE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Coast of Eastern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 290 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Fri Aug 04
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving NW away from Okinawa tonight towards the East China Sea. After 24 hours, it will regain some intensity as it moves into an area of slightly warmer seas w/ favorable ocean heat content. The core shall pass near the eastern seaboard of Northern Zhejiang & Jiangsu Province, just east of Metropolitan Shanghai on Sunday morning (Aug 07). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Moving farther away from Okinawa...about 172 km WNW of Okinawa City [2AM AUG 06: 26.8N 126.1E @ 160kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Intensified slightly as it moves toward the NE Coast of Zhejiang Province...about 401 km SE of Nongbo, China [2PM AUG 06: 28.0N 125.0E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Nears Category 3 strength as it approaches the coast of Zhejiang Province, Eastern China...about 213 km East of Ningbo, China 2AM AUG 07: 29.7N 123.7E @ 175kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakened slightly as it passes close to the NE coast of Zhejiang Province...about 144 km ENE of Shanghai, China [2PM AUG 07: 31.7N 122.8E @ 165kph].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the NE coast of Zhejiang Province, China...passing close, about 144 km ENE of Shanghai [ETA: between 12:00-2:00 PM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1 as it moves across the Yellow Sea...just along the coast of Shandong Province, preparing to make landfall [2PM AUG 08: 36.2N 121.4E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm while making landfall along the coast of Liaoning Province, about hundreds of kilometers to the ENE of Beijing. [2PM AUG 09: 41.2N 121.1E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated into an area of low pressure while over land, along Jilin-Heilongjiang boundary, China. [2PM AUG 10: 45.7N 123.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains circular and compact w/ thick raincloud convection on all quadrants. The typhoon continues to maintain a large ragged, cloud-filled. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE - over water (near the west coast of Okinawa)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EASTERN EYEWALL - spreading & affecting the whole island of Okinawa. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the rest of the Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Naje & Ishigakijima Islands & some portions of the northernmost Philippine Sea & East China Sea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa & the Ryukyus...with isolated amounts of up to 290 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN) especially along the SW portion of the circulation. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet [1.8 to 2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern China, Taiwan, Ishigakijima and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES (Western Luzon down to Western Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 05 AUGUST POSITION: 25.8N 127.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A LARGE, RAGGED, AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 050432Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI AND A RADAR FIX
FROM JAPAN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL AS AN
OBSERVATION FROM KADENA AB THAT INDICATES A PRESSURE OF 959 MB. TY
11W MAINTAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 05/00Z
OBSERVATION FROM NAZE INDICATING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 500 MB.
TY MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND TURN MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
IT SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BECAUSE OF LAND INTERACTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF IN THE GULF OF BOHAI AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 72, WHICH WILL CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. TY 11W WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD, ALTHOUGH ALL
MODELS THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO CHINA. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL, WHICH
IS THE OUTLIER TO WEST...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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