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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 26 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 howler as it nears the coast of Northern Aurora...slows down dramatically with a NNW turn. Inner rainbands now pounding the coastal areas of Northern Aurora and Eastern Isabela.
The possible interaction (Fujiwhara Effect) between TS TALAS (15W) located to the NNW of Guam may no longer push through due to its distance from each other. Nevertheless, NANMADOL (MINA) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing scattered to occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri August 26 2011
Location of Eye: 16.7º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 155 km ESE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 200 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 230 km ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 235 km East of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 5: 254 km SE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 300 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 353 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 380 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 467 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is now taking the alternate forecast scenario, however, since the recent northward drift has materialized - the possible of returning back to its previous forecast may still likely to occur. NANMADOL is expected to become a Super Typhoon later today as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan. The forecast track now shows the system moving NW to NNW-ward slowly, passing along the shores of Cagayan's NE tip early Saturday morning. It shall be over or very close to the Batanes Group of Islands while taking a northward turn early Sunday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Upgraded to a Super Typhoon as it nears the coast of Isabela...about 86 km East of Palanan Bay [2PM AUG 26: 17.0N 123.3E @ 240kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Weakens to below-Super Typhoon but remains a Category 4 system...Just along the northeast coast of Cagayan...about 91 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [2AM AUG 27: 18.1N 122.5E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Remains at below-Super Typhoon strength...moving to the east of the Balintang Channel, approaching Batanes...about 64 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2PM AUG 27: 19.2N 122.1E @ 220kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Turning Northward as it passes over or very close to Batanes Islands...about 21 km West of Basco [2AM AUG 28: 20.5N 121.8E @ 230kph].
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Just along the northeastern shores...about 63 km ENE of Aparri [ETA: between 2:00-8:00 AM Local Time, Tomorrow].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: In the vicinity of the island group...about 20 km West of Basco [ETA: between 2:00-6:00 AM Local Time, Sunday, August 28].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is now a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue within today...and will likely become a Super Typhoon. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving North to NNE just to the east of Southern Taiwan...starts to weaken [2AM AUG 29: 22.3N 122.0E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 while moving NE slowly...approaching the Yaeyama Island Chain [2AM AUG 30: 23.6N 122.8E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: About to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it passes over Ishigakijima...heading towards Okinawa [2AM AUG 31: 24.6N 124.0E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) strong circulation has improved overnight with the development of a circular clear eye, a sign that the howler is still intensifying. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
19-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Northern Aurora & Eastern Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Luzon incl. Metro Manila & Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 210 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 220 to 500 mm (high to very hight) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, & Batanes Group of Islands. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will experience stormy weather today until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 16.5N 124.0E.
*TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A 10 NM EYE
WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 100 TO 130 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING PERIPHERIES. TY 14W CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). A 25/12Z UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP EASTERLY FLOW,
ALTHOUGH STILL WEAK. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR.
TY 14W SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IS SKIRTS THE COAST OF LUZON.
IT WILL THEN RE-INTENSIFY WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT; HOWEVER IT
HAS BEEN UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE PERSISTENT MOTION. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BECAUSE THE STR TO THE NORTH IS
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS
NO LONGER CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING DISTANCE FROM TS
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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