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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 035 **FINAL**
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 09 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) rapidly dissipating over land, across Northeastern China.
Meanwhile, a new Tropical Disturbance (92W) is now a subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA). The system is currently outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was tracking quickly northward. As of 5AM today, its center was located about 1,867 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.3N 139.4E), watch for a separate page on this system once it becomes a cyclone.
*This is the last and final advisory on TS MUIFA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue August 09 2011
Location of Center: 43.6º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 511 km North of Pyongyang, N.Korea
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Northeastern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Final Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM HKT Mon Aug 08
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) will continue to dissipate over land...becoming a Tropical Depression later today. Below is the summary of the 1-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Rapidly accelerating ENE into Eastern Russia...dissipating over land...about 569 km NNE of Pyongyang, North Korea [5AM AUG 10: 48.0N 134.0E @ 45kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue losing strength & dissipate within the next 24 hours. MUIFA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay as it moves across NE China. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Liaoning, Jilin, & Heilongjiang Provinces of China. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 15 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 25 mm (medium) along areas near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) MON 08 AUGUST POSITION: 40.3N 124.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 11W HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER
NORTH KOREA AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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