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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Due to the very slow movement of NANMADOL, the 3-hourly & hourly updates will not be implemented. T2K will continue issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of powerful Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) now passing very close to the town of Santa Ana or along Escarpada Point in Northeastern Cagayan. Its Western & Southwestern Eyewall continues to lash Northern Cagayan with very powerful winds & heavy rains...Typhoon Conditions prevailing across the whole of Cagayan Province. Inner rainbands continues bringing rains w/ heavy squalls across Northern Luzon.
This howler will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms especially along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Eye: 18.3º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 6 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 8 km SE of Palaui Is., Cagayan
Distance 3: 33 km NE of Gonzaga, Cagayan
Distance 4: 45 km ENE of Buguey, Cagayan
Distance 5: 55 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 113 km NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 115 km SE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 8: 151 km NNE of Ilagan City
Distance 9: 172 km ENE of Laoag City
Distance 10: 289 km NNE of Baguio City
Distance 11: 450 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Palaui-Calayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Cagayan: Now [until-2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to turn NW to NNW slowly during the next 24 hours, before taking a more Northerly track between 36 to 48 hours. The typhoon may re-intensify upon moving back to sea (Balintang Channel) later today. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will exit Northern Cagayan this afternoon...and traverse the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel, passing to the west of Batanes around tomorrow morning (Sunday). NANMADOL shall be off the east coast of Southern Taiwan on Monday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SAT): Regains Category 4 strength while over the Balintang Channel...about 39 km ESE of Calayan Island or 79 km North of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM AUG 27: 19.1N 121.8E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Continues to intensify while passing to the west of the Batanes Group of Islands...about 69 km SW of Basco [8AM AUG 28: 20.1N 121.5E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): Weakens to Category 3 as it turns Northward, away from Batanes...about 61 km NW of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM AUG 28: 21.2N 121.4E @ 205kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it approaches the southeastern coast of Taiwan...about 126 km SE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8AM AUG 29: 22.1N 121.4E @ 195kph].
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Currently traversing the area...[ETA: Ongoing until 2:00 PM Local Time, Today].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: Passing very close to the west of Batanes...more or less 50 km to the west of Basco [ETA: between 6:00 AM-8:00 PM Local Time, Sunday, Aug 28].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations in its strength can be expected today until tomorrow. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). NANMADOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2 as it moves onshore parallel to the coast of Eastern Taiwan while moving North to NNE slowly...approaching Hualien City, Taiwan [8AM AUG 30: 23.2N 121.6E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1...continues moving onshore parallel to the coast of Eastern Taiwan...moving away from Hualien City [8AM AUG 31: 24.3N 121.9E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves away from the NE Coast of Taiwan...heading into the East China Sea [8AM SEP 01: 25.3N 122.3E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation continues to weaken due to land interaction. The weakened core is just along Mount Gonzaga in Northern Cagayan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - moving just to the NE of Santa Ana Town or in the vicinity of Escarpada Point. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
WESTERN EYEWALL - affecting & moving across Northeastern Cagayan...particularly along the towns of Santa Ana, Gonzaga, & Buguey. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Northern Luzon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Central Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan Is., Ilocos Norte, Balintang Channel & the Batanes Group of Islands. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03 and in excess of 185 kph for #04). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 27 AUGUST POSITION: 18.2N 122.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON HAS CAUSED THE EYE TO
BECOME CLOUD-FILLED WHILE THE EYEWALL ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
HAS ERODED. A 262219Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SEAWARD OF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,
WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM REMAINING WELL ORGANIZED WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL OPEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, AND OUTFLOW IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS REMAINS VIGOROUS. TY
14W IS BEING NUDGED TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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