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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 030
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 07 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #051/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) weakens into a Tropical Storm as it moves faster towards the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea.
MUIFA will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along Western Philippines particularly Panay, Negros, Guimaras, Mindoro, Calamian, Pangasinan, Zambales, Batangas, & Bataan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun August 07 2011
Location of Center: 32.6º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 271 km WSW of Cheju Is., South Korea
Distance 2: 283 km ENE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 377 km NE of Ningbo, China
Distance 4: 510 km SE of Qingdao, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 963 km (520 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Sun Aug 07
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving NNW into the Yellow Sea & pass very close along the easternmost handle of the Shandong Peninsula within the next 24 hours. After 24 hours, this system will continue to decay...making landfall along Liaoning Province by Monday evening. It will dissipate into a depression by Tuesday as it moves over land. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SUN): Maintains its near-typhoon strength as it moves closer to the Shandong Peninsula...about 327 km SE of Qingdao, China [8PM AUG 07: 34.6N 123.4E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (MON): Weakens slightly while passing along the easternmost handle of the Shandong Peninsula...about 273 km ENE of Qingdao, China [8AM AUG 08: 37.4N 122.9E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (MON): Making landfall along the coast of Liaoning Province, China...starts dissipating...about 260 km WNW of Pyongyang, North Korea 8PM AUG 08: 39.9N 123.0E @ 75kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Moving across Liaoning Province...weakened into a Tropical Depression as it continues to dissipate over land (Northeastern China)...about 394 km NNW of Pyongyang, North Korea [8AM AUG 09: 42.2N 123.8E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to lose strength within the next 24-48 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 963 kilometers (520 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated over land...just a remnant low along Heilongjiang Province...accelerating ENE towards Eastern Russia [8AM AUG 10: 45.8N 131.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay especially along the western quadrant. Latest imagery now shows the middle and upper-level circulation center starting to separate from the low-level circulation center due to increase upper-level winds (vertical wind shear) over the Yellow Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-117 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Cheju Island & the Southern Yellow Sea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Zhejiang & Jiangsu Provinces, Naje, Okinawa & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Kyushu, Shandong Peninsula, North & South Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Cheju Island, coastal areas of Zhejiang & Jiangsu Provinces, Naje, Okinawa & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Kyushu, Shandong Peninsula, North & South Korea...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 07 AUGUST POSITION: 32.1N 124.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS.
HOWEVER, AN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP OF THE PAST 12 HOURS
REVEALS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND OVERALL WANING CONVECTION. A
COMPARISION BETWEEN 91 GHZ AND 37 GHZ 06/2144Z SSMIS IMAGES REVEALS
TY 11W IS BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT SOME UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL TILT TOWARD
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST CLOSES ITS DISTANCE TO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A WEAKENING
DVORAK ESTIMATE TREND FROM PGTW. THE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE
WINDS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF 55 KNOTS, AND ON THE LOW SIDE OF 45 KNOTS.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CHANNEL DARKENING TO THE WEST OF TS
11W AS THE COLDER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS EXCELLENT ALONG WITH A MAINTAINED EASTWARD EXHAUST INTO THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. RECENTLY, TS
11W HAS BEEN EXHIBITING SOME VENTING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TS MUIFA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS), INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER CHINA...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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