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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Mon 29 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
After more than a day barely moving, Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) has finally started to drift towards the NNE...moving closer to Iwo To.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Mon August 29 2011
Location of Center: 23.7º N Lat 140.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 172 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 796 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 324 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,276 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 519 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 380 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Mon Aug 29
TALAS (15W) is expected to move generally to the north within the next 24 to 48 hours & intensify. It will remain over open waters throughout the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Nearing Typhoon status while moving north slowly...about 125 km WNW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8AM AUG 30: 25.1N 140.1E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Typhoon as it accelerates toward the NNW...about 263 km WNW of Bonin Island [8AM AUG 31: 27.3N 138.5E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It is likely to intensify for the next 2 days...becoming a Typhoon on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across.
THURSDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength...turns NNE [8AM SEP 01: 30.5N 138.9E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large with some improvement in its structure...intensification likely. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - approaching & moving into Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bonin Island. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 380 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 29 AUGUST POSITION: 23.8N 140.2E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES VERIFY THAT TS 15W IS STILL MOVING
NORTHEAST, ALBEIT SLOWLY. THE 24 HOUR NET MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST AT
LESS THAN 03 KNOTS. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS VERY SLOW CONSOLIDATION
OF THE CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPANSIVE AND MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 37GHZ 282027Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS
THICK CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT THE HIGHER FREQUENCY IMAGERY DOES NOT
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE ARE BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT THEY ARE DISPLACED FROM THE CORE. THE
DISPLACEMENT OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER IS MAKING
DVORAK ASSESSMENTS LESS REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL INTENSITY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE, A
PRESSURE REPORT FROM A BUOY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND REPORTS
FROM IWO TO. IWO TO HAS BEEN SEEING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TS 15W HAS DEVELOPED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND INSULATED
ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27 TO 28 DEGREES. TS
15W IS UNDER WHAT IS LEFT OF A NARROW TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT), CONFINED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE 281200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE STR NEAR 29N 133E. THE ANTICYCLONE HAS
BEEN RETROGRADING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST
48 HOURS...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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