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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) remain standstill off the Western Pacific, southwest of Iwo To.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 282 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 772 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 435 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,261 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 471 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: Almost Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 970 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM JST Sat Aug 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (15W) is expected resume moving northward slowly throughout the forecast period & intensify. This system will remain over open waters during the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): Upgraded to a Typhoon while moving northward slowly...about 232 km SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8PM AUG 28: 23.4N 139.6E @ 130kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Continues to slowly intensify while passing west of Iwo To...about 189 km WSW of Iwo To [8PM AUG 29: 24.1N 139.6E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Sunday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 970 kilometers (525 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY EVENING: Nears Category 2 status...continues to move towards the North...passing well to the WSW of Bonin Island [8PM AUG 30: 26.0N 139.6E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large, showing a big, eye-like feature. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 27 AUGUST POSITION: 22.8N 139.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH A SMALL CYCLONE
IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTER; THIS CYCLONE IS LIKELY INHIBITING THE
FORMATION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 271011Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE AND THE
271140Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE ASCAT DATA WHICH
SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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