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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) barely moving over the open sea, southwest of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima).
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 282 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 772 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 435 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,261 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 471 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: Almost Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (north of center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 970 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sat Aug 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (15W) is expected resume moving northwart slowly throughout the forecast period & intensify. This system will remain over open waters during the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Upgraded to a Typhoon while moving northward slowly...about 214 km WSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8AM AUG 28: 23.8N 139.5E @ 140kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify while passing west of Iwo To...about 193 km WNW of Iwo To [8AM AUG 29: 25.0N 139.4E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Sunday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 970 kilometers (525 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY MORNING: Upgraded to Category 2...continues to move towards the North...passing well to the west of Bonin Island [8AM AUG 30: 26.4N 139.4E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation becomes so large, now showing a big, eye-like feature. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 27 AUGUST POSITION: 22.6N 139.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A RELATIVELY OPEN
CENTER AND A SLOW TREND TOWARD CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE CORE. A
261907Z SSMI SERIES (37H AND 85H) INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH ALL CONVECTION
DISPLACED OUTWARDS FROM THE CENTER. A 261200Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF THE STORM, AND THAT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND 180NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
THE NORTH IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS CURRENTLY 13 KNOTS AND DECREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 15W IS BEING
STEERED POLEWARD BY AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS
IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF-
SHORE OF TOKYO AND BLOCKING MOVEMENT TOWARDS HONSHU. TS 15W WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD IN A WEAK AND COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS ERRATIC,
BUT CONSENSUS IS BALANCING THE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND THE JGSM SOLUTION...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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