for Tuesday, 23 August 2011 [6:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday August 23 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 14W (MINA).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [MINA]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 23 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The strong disturbance (LPA 96W) which was lingering for day over the Philippine Sea, east of the Bicol Peninsula, finally becomes a Tropical Cyclone...attaining Tropical Depression classification. The depression tagged as 14W (MINA) has been almost stationary over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.
In the coming days, TD 14W may likely have a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with another developing cyclone (97W) located west of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines is very minimal to none, it will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the archipelago.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of 14W (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue August 23 2011
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 447 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 543 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 613 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 738 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
14W (MINA) is expected to move slowly towards the NE, across the open waters of the Philippine Sea without affecting any land areas. This system will eventually become a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 2 days. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (TUE): Intensifying over the Philippine Sea...moving slowly NNE to NE...about 480 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM AUG 23: 15.3N 128.3E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Becomes a TS while over the Philippine Sea...continuing on its NE track...about 513 NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM AUG 24: 15.6N 128.5E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Maintains its minimal TS strength & direction...about 552 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM AUG 24: 15.9N 128.8E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Gained a little bit of strength as it maintains its very slow NE track over the Philippine Sea...about 747 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM AUG 25: 16.2N 129.1E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 14W is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying while over the open waters of the Philippine Sea...a possible interaction between another cyclone maybe taking place at this time [2AM AUG 26: 16.7N 129.6E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm as it starts accelerating NE [2AM AUG 27: 18.7N 131.6E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: About to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns more ENE-ward. [2AM AUG 28: 20.3N 134.4E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with possible showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
14W's (MINA) circulation is currently compact with little rain-cloud convection along the eastern and SE quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas. However, its Southwesternmost outer bands are currently spreading and affecting the Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA), a newly-forming disturbance off the Western Pacific Ocean, west of Guam. The system was located about 334 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (16.3N 144.0E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is at 20%. To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with possible showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with possible showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 23 AUGUST POSITION: 15.0N 128.1E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221318Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE 221200Z PGTW GRADIENT
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 221725Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
VENTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CHANNEL IS A RESULT OF
INTERACTION WITH A STATIONARY TUTT CELL EAST OF THE RYUKYUS. TD 14W
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PART OF A DEVELOPING
MONSOON GYRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS A PERIOD OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE SECOND CYCLONE IS IN THE GENITIVE
STAGES, WEST OF THE MARIANAS. THERE IS GOOD QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE IMPENDING FORMATION OF A MONSOON
GYRE OVER WESTPAC, BUT WIDE DISPARITY REGARDING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TD 14W DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. SUCH DISAGREEMENT IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE INTRINSIC COMPLEXITY AND THE EARLY STAGE OF
THE DEVELOPING GYRE. THE JTWC TRACK USES CONSTANT BEARING AND RATE
OF MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEN STAYS BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WILL BE SLOWER THAN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 14W...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 14W (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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