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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 02 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #031/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) on the major Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) has ended...a new & large eye flourishes on satellite imagery...still tracking Northward during the past 6 hours...expected to re-intensify. This system will continue to enhance the SW Monsoon rains w/ squalls & Thunderstorms across Western Visayas, Southwestern Luzon including Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Mindoro & the Calamian Group.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue August 02 2011
Location of Eye: 22.5º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 775 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,035 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,300 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,270 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,355 km ENE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,370 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,440 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,625 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 520 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 01
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, NW VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to re-intensify & turn shaprly towards the WNW within the next 24 to 48 hours and shall pass very close or directly over Okinawa Island in 72 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (TUE): Regains Category 4 strength turns NW'ly, aiming for Okinawa...about 650 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM AUG 02: 23.3N 133.2E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Continues to strengthen as it turns more WNW-ward still in the direction of Okinawa...about 515 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM AUG 03: 24.0N 132.1E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (WED): Maintains its Category 4 strength as it moves closer to Okinawa...about 385 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa 8PM AUG 03: 24.4N 130.9E @ 220kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Starts to lose strength as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa...about 240 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa [8AM AUG 04: 25.0N 129.6E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 3...passing very close to Okinawa Island [8AM AUG 05: 26.1N 127.7E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains @ Category 3 as it moves away from Okinawa, turns NW'ly toward the East China Sea [8AM AUG 06: 28.0N 125.8E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2...moving across the East China Sea...approaching the coast of Eastern China [8AM AUG 07: 30.6N 124.3E @ 175kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing very close to the island...about 38 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 10:00-11:00 AM JST Friday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intense with organized spiral band-convection on all sides. The typhoon's core is now showing a newly-formed large eye as a result of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
NEW EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Iwo To, Bonin & other nearby small islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Bonin-Iwo To...with isolated amounts of up to 520 mm (very high) to the NE & near MUIFA's (KABAYAN's) center. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, NW VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, NW VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 02 AUGUST POSITION: 22.3N 134.1E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS REFORMED AN EYE THAT IS COVERED BY A THIN
CIRRUS VEIL. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 01/2109Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINED IN THE NEWLY FORMED EYEWALL
STRUCTURE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE DIAMETER OF THIS NEW RAGGED EYEWALL IS
APPROXIMATELY 13 NM, WHICH IS 6 NM LARGER THAN 12-HOURS AGO. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT TY
11W CONTINUES TO BE UNDER WEAK (05-10 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT, BUT THE EASTWARD
OUTFLOW IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING DISCONNECTED FROM A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS FILLING INTO MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE TUTT CELLS THAT LIE FARTHER TO THE
EAST, NEAR THE DATELINE, ARE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN AND SHOULD RE-TAP
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF TY 11W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PGTW FIX POSITION BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF
A 01/1705Z AMSRE 37GHZ IMAGE. INTENSITY IS ALSO HELD HIGHER THAN
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS TO MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST TREND AS THE NEW EYEWALL FORMS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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