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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 24 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NANMADOL (MINA) nears typhoon classification as it moves in a very-slow, erratic motion over the Philippine Sea, hundreds of kilometers to the east of Aurora...will likely become a Typhoon later tonight or tomorrow.
This weekend, TS NANMADOL is expected to have an interaction (Fujiwhara Effect) with the developing cyclone (97W) located to the NW of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines will be minimal. It will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow, bringing scattered to occasional rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed August 24 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 448 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 450 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 600 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 465 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Wed Aug 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to resume moving slowly towards the North, across the open waters of the Philippine Sea without directly affecting any land areas. This system will continue to gain strength within the next 2 days, reaching typhoon strength tomorrow. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Approaching Typhoon status as it moves very slowly NNW...about 471 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM AUG 25: 16.6N 126.5E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it veers slowly northward...about 404 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2PM AUG 25: 17.1N 126.3E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it maintain its slow Northward track across the North Philippine Sea...about 466 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [2AM AUG 26: 18.1N 126.1E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its slow intensification trend and northerly track...about 493 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2PM AUG 26: 19.3N 126.2E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours...and will likely become a Typhoon on Thursday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 465 kilometers (250 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Category 2 strength...veers to the NNE while along the North Philippine Sea [2PM AUG 27: 21.4N 126.7E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to Category 2 as it moves more NE-ward...starts to interact with a potential tropical cyclone outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM AUG 28: 22.8N 127.5E @ 160kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Category 2 strength while moving NE in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan. Interaction with another cyclone to the east continues [2PM AUG 29: 23.8N 128.7E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation continues to exhibit an excellent system with convective rainbands on all quadrants. A possible eye maybe forming beneath its Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...However, its western & southwesternmost outer rainbands continues to spread & affecting the coastal areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Northern Quezon & the Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 510 mm (very high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) still consolidating, west of Northern Marianas and is likely to become a Tropical Depression later tonight or tomorrow. The system was located about 455 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (16.7N 141.3E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...quasi-stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains HIGH (90%). To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 24 AUGUST POSITION: 16.3N 126.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 14W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 240500Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 24/00Z WARNING POSITION WAS REPOSITIONED WEST
ABOUT 55 NM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ERRATICALLY AND SLOWLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 96, TS 14W WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT (FUJIWARA) WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (CURRENT
TCFA SYSTEM) EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THIS WILL
INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED POOR AND
HAS ALSO FLUCTUATED FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH A LARGE SPREAD
(APPROXIMATELY 550NM AT TAU 120) IN SOLUTIONS...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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