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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 03 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #036/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) has weakened slightly as it moves to the west slowly...outer rainbands approaching the Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands. This system will continue to pull the SW Monsoon rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms across Western & Southwestern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Marinduque, Western Bicol, & Northern Visayas incl. Romblon.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed August 03 2011
Location of Eye: 24.4º N Lat 131.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 440 km SE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 442 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 447 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 749 km East of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 1,012 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 1,077 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,222 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 1,547 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 350 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Wed Aug 03
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE & portions of NORTHERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to resume its WNW motion w/ a decrease in strength within the next 24 hours. Its core shall be passing very close, to the SW of Okinawa Island by Friday morning approx 8 to 9 AM Japan Standard Time (00-01 GMT). During the next 36 to 48 hours, MUIFA shall re-intensify as it moves into an area of warmer sea surface temperature w/ a higher ocean heat content located just west of Okinawa - with a track more to the NW. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Weakened slightly as it moves toward Okinawa...about 361 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Japan [2AM AUG 04: 24.6N 130.8E @ 185kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa w/ no change of strength...about 202 km SE of Naha, Okinawa [2PM AUG 04: 25.1N 129.3E @ 185kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies as it passes very close to the South of Okinawa...about 73 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa or 91 km SSE of Kadena Air Base 2AM AUG 05: 25.6N 128.0E @ 195kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Turns NW-ward while to the west of Okinawa...about 90 km West of Naha, Okinawa or 100 km West of Kadena Air Base [2PM AUG 05: 26.3N 126.8E @ 195kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing close to the south of the island...about 76 km SSW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 8:00-9:00 AM JST Friday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) remains a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some decrease on MUIFA's strength is likely within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 2 as it moves NW-ward across the East China Sea, farther away from Okinawa...closer to the coast of Eastern China, particularly Shanghai Area [2PM AUG 06: 28.3N 124.5E @ 175kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Very near the coast of Eastern China-Shanghai Area...weakens to Category 1 [2PM AUG 07: 30.7N 122.5E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it remains offshore of Jiangsu Province, just to the north of Shanghai [2PM AUG 08: 33.8N 121.0E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intact with an over-all large but compact structure. The typhoon is currently showing a 45-km in diameter ragged eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAGGED EYE (45-km diameter) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...expected to reach Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands tomorrow noon or afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - has started spreading & affecting Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE & portions of NORTHERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE & portions of NORTHERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 03 AUGUST POSITION: 24.3N 132.1E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A 25 NM RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A
NARROW EYEWALL AND A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 03/0551Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS RECENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TY 11W HAS COMPLETED
ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT BUT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE NEW
EYEWALL STRUGGLES TO REINTINSIFY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. UPPER AIR STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS PLACES TY 11W EQUATORWARD OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND POLEWARD OF
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TY 11W WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER HONSHU, JAPAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
WITH THE RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER
REMAINING IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS TY 11W TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48-72, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND DECREASING SSTS AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND GFS FAVORING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
TOWARD THE KOREAN PENINSULA WHILE EGRR AND ECMWF STEER 11W MORE
WESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND CHINA. NGPS, WBAR, AND JGSM FAVOR A TRACK
IN BETWEEN THESE OTHER SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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