for Monday, 01 August 2011 [6:50 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 01 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #026/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Powerful Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) now moving northward across the North Philippine Sea...maintains its wind speed. This typhoon together with the strong Low Pressure Area (97W/LANDO) west of La Union will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat in Tagalog), bringing occasional to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms across the Visayas, Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Marinduque, Western Bicol & Northern Palawan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon August 01 2011
Location of Cloud-Filled Eye: 18.9º N Lat 133.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,025 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,145 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,400 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,215 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,260 km ESE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,245 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,245 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,405 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (145 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 46 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 01
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, WESTERN BICOL. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to slightly intensify to near-Super Typhoon strength within 12 hours and will again return to its 220 km/hr intensity for the rest of the 2-day forecast. This system will eventually turn towards the northwest in response to a building steering ridge off the coast of Eastern China. MUIFA will start to threaten the islands of the Okinawa and Ryukyu after 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (MON): Re-intensifies to near-Super Typhoon strength while moving northward across the North Philippine Sea...about 1,225 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 01: 19.8N 133.7E @ 230kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Weakens slightly as it turns NNW...about 1,205 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM AUG 02: 21.1N 133.5E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Maintains its strength as it turns more NW-ward...about 720 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 02: 22.2N 133.1E @ 220kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to track in the direction of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 545 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM AUG 03: 23.4N 132.0E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 230 km/hr (125 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens but still a Category 4 typhoon...approaching Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2AM AUG 04: 25.1N 129.9E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 typhoon as it passes very close to Okinawa Island [2AM AUG 05: 26.2N 128.0E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it moves away from Okinawa...heading towards Eastern China [2AM AUG 06: 27.4N 126.2E @ 185kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing over or very close to the island...about 15 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 7:00-8:00 AM JST Friday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intact with strong convection on all sides. The typhoon's core continues to exhibit a small, cloud-filled eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the Outer & Inner Rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) to the SW of MUIFA's (KABAYAN's) center. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Currently issuing separate updates on Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) [LANDO]. Click this link for more info.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, WESTERN BICOL. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, WESTERN BICOL. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 01 AUGUST POSITION: 18.5N 133.5E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
DISTINCT 10 NM EYE PERSISTS, AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT TREND TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE
CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. OVERALL THOUGH, THERE IS NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY, WHICH CONTINUE TO BE BASED ON AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE OVERALL
SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS COME DOWN 20 KNOTS. DESPITE ITS SEVERE
INTENSITY, TY 11W IS SHOWING DIURNAL INTENSITY FLUCTUATION. FOR THE
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY, CONVECTION WANED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND SURGED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OCCURRED DURING THE DAYLIGHT EBB, BUT
THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE STORM. THE OUTFLOW SITUATION ALSO
DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT IT TOO IS STARTING TO
IMPROVE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT BEGINNING NEAR
310000Z. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE 24TH LATITUDE
AND IS NOW SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
311200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASED
SHEER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS IMPEDING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, IT IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS WIDESPREAD AND
DEEP. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM OUTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TY 11W
CONTINUES ITS POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH IS NOW
RETROGRADING SOUTHEAST. THE SLOW AND ERRATIC POLEWARD MOVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE (TAU 18),
AND THEN THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN NUDGING THE SYSTEM ON A BEND TO
THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST SHEAR
WILL BE ENCOUNTERED DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS, JUST BEFORE THE STORM
MAKES ITS WESTWARD BEND. ABOVE 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS, WHILE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 29 DEGREES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TRACK.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS THE PRIMARY VARIABLE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH
OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF
20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
TIGHTER ALIGNMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH CONSENSUS
(WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND ECMWF) THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU
72, THE TRACK IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR WHAT
IS BELIEVED TO BE THE ERRONEOUS INPUT OF GFS, EGRR, AND GFDN. ALL
AIDS, HOWEVER, INDICATE A HIGH IMPACT STRIKE ON OR VERY CLOSE TO
OKINAWA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO ALIGNED SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS
STILL A SPLIT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
DYNAMIC AIDS, BUT THEY ARE DRAWING MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER, AND MUCH
CLOSER TO THE JTWC FORECAST...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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