for Sunday, 28 August 2011 [7:01 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
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NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 28 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) continues to lose strength while tracking North to NNW...expected to make landfall along Southern Taiwan by sunrise tomorrow. Typhoon Conditions along Batanes Islands has started to recede. Outer rainbands affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.
This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across Western Luzon, bringing passing occasional rains w/ strong winds.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan & Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Eye: 21.2º N Lat 121.1º E Lon {Radar Fix}
Distance 1: 91 km NW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 95 km SSE of Hengchun, Taiwan
Distance 3: 104 km SSW of Orchid Is., Taiwan
Distance 4: 122 km NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 172 km South of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 6: 174 km SSE of Kaohsiung City
Distance 7: 311 km SSW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 8: 318 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 9: 338 km NNE of Laoag City
Distance 10: 426 km SSW of Taipei City
Distance 11: 479 km SE of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to S.Taiwan: Monday [1AM-11PM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Sun Aug 28
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to continue moving NNW during the next 24 hours and make landfall over Southern Taiwan tomorrow (Monday). On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will approach shores of Southern Taiwan early tomorrow morning...and cross the rugged terrain of Southern Taiwan beginning before sunrise until the early evening. Upon landfall, NANMADOL will weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) and shall bend more to the west while over the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday afternoon. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Downgraded to a Category 1 storm as it moves along the shores of Southern Taiwan...about 23 km ESE of Hengchun, Taiwan [2AM AUG 29: 21.9N 121.0E @ 140kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Downgraded to a TS upong crossing the mountains of Southern Taiwan...about 59 km NE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM AUG 29: 23.1N 120.5E @ 100kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just offshore of Southwestern Taiwan, starts crossing the Strait of Taiwan...about 150 km NNW of Kaohsiung [2AM AUG 30: 23.9N 119.9E @ 85kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to lose strength as it approaches the shores of Fujian Province, China...gaining a little bit of strength...about 133 km ESE of Xiamen City, China [2PM AUG 30: 24.3N 119.4E @ 75kph]. SOUTHERN TAIWAN: Crossing the area [ETA: between 1:00 AM to 11:00 PM Local Time Tomorrow].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continues weakening can be expected prior to making landfall. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Xiamen City...making landfall across Fujian Province...barely a TS as it tracks Westward [2PM AUG 31: 24.7N 118.0E @ 65kph]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over land...just an area of low pressure over the eastern part of Guangdong Province [2PM SEP 01: 24.5N 116.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation had shrunk a little bit as it continues to have some difficulty in gaining strength over the Luzon Strait. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Just to tne NW of the Batanes Group. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - affecting & moving across the Bashi Channel...will approach the coast of Southern Taiwan late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Batanes Group of Islands & Southern Taiwan...will approach Central Taiwan later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan Strait, Southeastern China & Taiwan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, Southern & Eastern Taiwan. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southeastern China, Taiwan, Northern & Western Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) 
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02; and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: REST OF NORTHERN CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ABRA & ILOCOS SUR.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 28 AUGUST POSITION: 21.0N 121.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
280500Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS TY 14W APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF TAIWAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
AND MOTION BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN BUT ALSO ON A
PARTIAL EYEWALL EVIDENT IN THE AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK CI ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. TY 14W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STR OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE 28/00Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL CHINA IS FILLING WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
JAPAN AND THE STR EXTENSION MAINTAINING STRENGTH ACROSS THE EAST
CHINA SEA AND CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTWARD AND IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96. TY 14W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TAIWAN
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER CHINA BY TAU 96...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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