for Monday, 01 August 2011 [1:37 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 01 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #027/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) moving north-northeastward across the open seas...undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). This system will no longer directly affect the Philippines but will still enhance the monsoon rains across Western Philippines.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon August 01 2011
Location of Eye: 19.5º N Lat 134.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,005 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,150 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,415 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,260 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,310 km East of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,300 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,310 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,475 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (145 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 43 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 01
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to still intensify to near-Super Typhoon strength within 12 hours and weaken back to its 220 km/hr intensity for the rest of the 2-day forecast. This system will eventually turn towards the northwest in response to a building steering ridge off the coast of Eastern China within 36-48 hours. MUIFA will start to threaten the islands of the Okinawa and Ryukyu after 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
THIS EVENING (MON): Re-intensifies to near-Super Typhoon strength while moving north to NNW-ward across the North Philippine Sea...about 1,220 km East of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 01: 20.2N 133.7E @ 230kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Weakens slightly as it turns NNW...about 1,205 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM AUG 02: 21.5N 133.4E @ 220kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (TUE): Maintains its strength as it turns NW-ward...about 650 km SE of Okinawa, Japan 82PM AUG 02: 22.6N 132.6E @ 220kph]. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Continues to track NW towards Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 500 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM AUG 03: 23.6N 131.6E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 220 km/hr (120 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across. THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens but still a Category 4 typhoon...approaching Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM AUG 04: 25.1N 129.5E @ 215kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 typhoon as it passes very close to Okinawa Island [8AM AUG 05: 26.3N 127.7E @ 205kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it moves away from Okinawa...heading towards Eastern China [8AM AUG 06: 27.5N 125.9E @ 185kph]. OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing over or very close to the island...about 24 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 AM JST Friday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intense with organized spiral bands convection on all sides, except for the NW portion. The typhoon's core continues to exhibit a small, cloud-filled eye surrounded by an inner and outer eyewall, which depicts the start of an ERC. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: SMALL EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). INNER & OUTER EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the OUTER & INNER RAINBANDS...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) to the South of MUIFA's (KABAYAN's) center. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Currently issuing separate updates on Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) [LANDO]. Click this link for more info.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 01 AUGUST POSITION: 18.9N 133.7E.
*..more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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