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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 06 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #047/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) weakening over the East China Sea...turns NNW.
MUIFA will continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along a wide-swath of Western Philippines (from Western Luzon, Western Visayas, Palawan, down to Western Mindanao).
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat August 06 2011
Location of Eye: 28.1º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 303 km NW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 296 km NW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 289 km NW of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 421 km NNE of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 519 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 471 km East of Wenzhou, China
Distance 7: 437 km SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 8: 525 km SE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea-Shandong Peninsula
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 963 km (520 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sat Aug 06
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving NNW across the East China Sea and into Yellow Sea Area. After 24 hours, it will regain a little bit of intensity as it moves into an area of slightly warmer seas w/ favorable ocean heat content. The core shall pass near the eastern seaboard of Northern Zhejiang & Jiangsu Province, just east of Metropolitan Shanghai on Sunday, and shall make landfall along Shandong Peninsula on Monday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SAT): Moving NNW across the East China Sea...approaching the coast of Zhejiang-Jiangsu Province...about 295 km ESE of Ningbo, China [8PM AUG 06: 29.4N 124.5E @ 140kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Passing well to the east of Northern Zhejiang...about 200 km East of Shanghai, China [8AM AUG 07: 31.5N 123.5E @ 130kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): Accelerating NNW into the Yellow Sea...approaching Shandong Peninsula...about 349 km NNE of Shanghai, China 8PM AUG 07: 34.2N 122.5E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Over Shandong Peninula...downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 167 km NE of Qingdao, China [8AM AUG 08: 37.1N 121.7E @ 100kph].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the NE coast of Zhejiang Province, China...passing about 200 km East of Shanghai [ETA: between 1:00-3:00 PM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 388 kilometers (210 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 963 kilometers (520 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...making landfall along Liaoning Province...recurves towards the NNE [8AM AUG 09: 41.1N 121.6E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated over land...just an area of low pressure off Jilin Province [8AM AUG 10: 45.9N 125.6E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay especially along the northern quadrant. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYE - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Eastern Coast of China (Zhejiang), Naje, Okinawa, & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Cheju Island, Western Coast of Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Eastern Coast of China (Zhejiang), Naje, Okinawa, & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Cheju Island, Western Coast of Kyushu...with isolated amounts of up to 210 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Zhejiang & Jiangsu Provinces of China, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today & tomorrow. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern China, Taiwan, Ishigakijima and Western Kyushu. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES (Western Luzon down to Western Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 06 AUGUST POSITION: 27.7N 125.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WARMING
CONVECTIVE TOPS. HOWEVER, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
REMAIN INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
052157Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD TO REFLECT A ROBUST LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BENEATH
THE DETERIORATING CLOUD SIGNATURES. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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