for Thursday, 04 August 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 04 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #039/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) maintains its Category 2 status as it weakens slightly...still on a wobbling-westward track. Its inner rainbands approaching Okinawa.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu August 04 2011
Location of Eye: 24.7º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 239 km SE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 248 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 256 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 526 km East of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 787 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 891 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,060 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 1,420 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Thu Aug 04
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, NORTHERN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to resume moving WNW approaching Okinawa Friday and over the East China Sea on Saturday. Its core shall be passing close, to the SW of Okinawa Island on Friday morning approx 8 to 9 AM Japan Standard Time (00-01 GMT). During the next 48 hours, MUIFA shall still intensify as it moves into an area of warmer sea surface temperature w/ a higher ocean heat content located offshore of Eastern China - with a track more to the NW. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (THU): Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 139 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa or 159 km SSE of Kadena Air Base [8PM AUG 04: 25.0N 128.1E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (FRI): Passing close to the SW of Okinawa Island...about 82 km SW of Naha, Okinawa or 105 km SW of Kadena Air Base [8AM AUG 05: 25.7N 127.1E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Moving away from Okinawa towards Eastern China...about 199 km West of Kadena Air Base 8PM AUG 05: 26.4N 125.8E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Turns NW-ward w/ a little increase in strength while over the East China Sea, threatens Jiangsu Province particularly Shanghai...about 495 km SE of Shanghai, China [8AM AUG 06: 27.6N 124.4E @ 175kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing close to the southwest of the island...about 113 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 8:00-9:00 AM JST Friday].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Making landfall over Jiangsu Province...passing very close to Shanghai [ETA: between 2:00-3:00 PM HKT Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) remains a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY MORNING: Just along the coast of Eastern China...passing very close to Shanghai...regains Category 3 strength [8AM AUG 07: 30.2N 122.4E @ 185kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm while moving NNW along the shores of Jiangsu Province, China. [8AM AUG 08: 34.4N 120.1E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Dissipating over land (China), just to the SE of Beijing [8AM AUG 09: 38.1N 118.4E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains healthy and compact as it nears Okinawa Area. The typhoon is currently displaying a brand-new eye shrinking to a smaller size. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...expected to reach Okinawa this afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, NORTHERN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, NORTHERN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 04 AUGUST POSITION: 24.6N 129.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W STRUGGLING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE STORM INTENSITY
HAS FLATTENED OUT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT A 032024Z SSMIS
IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE OUTER
EYEWALL. THE NEW EYE IS EXPANSIVE, MEASURING NEARLY 90 NM IN
DIAMETER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, YET EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE PAST FOUR
DAYS, THE ANTICYCLONE AT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH AND THE DATELINE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION
NEAR 35N 160E. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING
THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE STORM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
28 DEGREES...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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