for Tuesday, 23 August 2011 [6:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday August 23 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 14W (MINA).
14W (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 14W [MINA]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 23 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
14W (MINA)has strengthened into a Tropical Storm as it lingers over the warm Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.
In the coming days, TS 14W may likely have a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with another developing cyclone (97W) located west of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines is very minimal to none, it will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the archipelago.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of 14W (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue August 23 2011
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 435 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 524 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 567 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 704 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 02 kph (01 kt)
Towards: Philippine Sea
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
14W (MINA) is expected to move slowly towards the North to NNE, across the open waters of the Philippine Sea without directly affecting any land areas. This system will continue to slowly gain strength within the next 2 days. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Continues to intensify as it moves slowly Northward...about 566 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM AUG 24: 16.3N 127.4E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm while maintaining its slow Northward movement...about 608 East of Cauayan, Isabela [2PM AUG 24: 16.6N 127.4E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Nearing typhoon threshold...about 542 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM AUG 25: 17.0N 127.5E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Almost a typhoon...turns NNE-ward...about 636 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM AUG 25: 17.6N 127.7E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 14W is now a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...tracking northeasterly across the Philippine Sea [2PM AUG 26: 18.6N 128.3E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it starts accelerating NE to ENE away from the Central Philippine Sea [2PM AUG 27: 20.3N 130.2E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength while moving ENE farther away from the Philippines. A possible interaction between a developing cyclone west of Guam may take place during this time. [2PM AUG 28: 21.8N 132.6E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN & NORTHERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
14W's (MINA) circulation standstill over the Philippine Sea as it continues to consolidate & strengthen. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas. However, its Southwesternmost portion continues affecting the Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) still on its developing process over the Western Pacific Ocean, west of the Marianas. The system was located about 194 km WNW of Guam, CNMI (14.2N 143.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains at MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN & NORTHERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN & NORTHERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 23 AUGUST POSITION: 16.0N 127.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
230534Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED, TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 35 (KNES) TO 45 (PGTW) KNOTS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE KNES ESTIMATE
AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE LOW-RESOLUTION AMSU IMAGE AND MSI,
WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL
LOCATED JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAIR WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWED
BY ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD AS 14W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF GUAM AFTER 24-36 HOURS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A COMPLEX GYRE PATTERN WHICH WILL LIKELY INVOLVE
FUJIWARA BETWEEN TWO DEVELOPING SYSTEMS AFTER TAU 72, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS (TAU 72-120)...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
*WARNING: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS CURRENTLY NOT ALIGNED WITH THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS 14W (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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