for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [4:40 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) still quasi-stationary along the open seas of the Western Pacific...not a threat to any major land areas at this time.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 282 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 772 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 435 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,261 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 471 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: Almost Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 970 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat Aug 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (15W) is expected resume moving northward slowly throughout the forecast period & intensify. This system will remain over open waters during the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Upgraded to a Typhoon while moving northward slowly...about 218 km WSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2PM AUG 28: 23.6N 139.6E @ 130kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to slowly intensify while passing west of Iwo To...about 181 km WSW of Iwo To [2PM AUG 29: 24.3N 139.6E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Sunday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 970 kilometers (525 nautical miles) across. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Nears Category 2 status...continues to move towards the North...passing well to the WSW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 30: 26.1N 139.7E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large, showing a big, eye-like feature. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 27 AUGUST POSITION: 22.8N 139.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT IS
CONSOLIDATING AND ORGANIZING AROUND A RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262053Z SSMIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS NOW WRAPPING NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORMING, WHILE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW EXISTS
OVER THE OTHER QUADRANTS. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY COMBINED WITH THE
BROAD, RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE LLCC STILL BEAR THE SIGNATURE OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT A 262000Z AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY. OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 180NM FROM THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. TS 15W IS BEING NUDGED POLEWARD BY AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. THE ANTICYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment