Monday, August 29, 2011

NANMADOL [MINA] weakens into a TS... [Update #021]

 


for Monday, 29 August 2011 [12:48 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).


NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]

T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 29 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #026/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NANMADOL (MINA) rapidly weakened into a Tropical Storm after traversing the rugged terrain of Southwestern Taiwan...now emerges along the Taiwan Strait or off the shores of Southwestern Taiwan...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Tropical Storm Conditions continuing along Southern Taiwan.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across Western Luzon (from Zambales up to Ilocos Norte), bringing passing occasional rains w/ gusty winds.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan & Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon August 29 2011
Location of Center: 23.3º N Lat 119.8º E Lon {CWB Radar/SatFix}
Distance 1: 37 km SSE of Penghu Is., Taiwan
Distance 2: 48 km NW of Tainan City, Taiwan
Distance 3: 52 km West of Sinying, Taiwan
Distance 4: 94 km NNW of Kaoshiung City, Taiwan
Distance 5: 150 km WNW of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 6: 174 km NW of Hengchun, Taiwan
Distance 7: 198 km WSW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 8: 216 km SE of Quanzhou, China
Distance 9: 218 km SE of Xiamen, China
Distance 10: 267 km SW of Taipei City
Distance 11: 385 km NW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Fujian Province, China
CPA [ETA] to Fujian: Tuesday [12NN-10PM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Mon Aug 29

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*

NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to move NW during the next 24 hours, traversing the Taiwan Strait. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will turn more to the west and make landfall over Fujian Province near Xiamen City tomorrow evening (Tuesday). NANMADOL will re-intensify slightly as it moves across the warm waters of Taiwan Strait later tonight and rapidly dissipate into a depression after it makes landfall over Southeastern China in 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

THIS EVENING (MON):  Maintain its strength while over Taiwan Strait...about 143 km NNW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8PM AUG 29: 23.8N 119.8E @ 95kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (TUE):  Approaching the shores of Fujian Province...about 112 km East of Xiamen, China [8AM AUG 30: 24.4N 119.2E @ 95kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (TUE):  Turns WNW slowly while making landfall over Fujian Province...just barely a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 55 km ENE of Xiamen, China [8PM AUG 30: 24.7N 118.6E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Downgraded to a weak Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves slowly across the rugged terrain of Fujian Province...about 54 km NW of Xiamen City, China [8AM AUG 31: 24.9N 117.8E @ 45kph].

NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

FUJIAN PROVINCE, CHINA:  Near Xiamen City [ETA: between 12:00 PM to 10:00 PM Tuesday].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*

THURSDAY MORNING:  Dissipated over land (Jiangxi Province)...just a remnant low pressure [8AM SEP 01: 25.1N 116.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation continues to deteriorate as it moves back to sea...may re-intensify later today. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Taiwan Strait & Southwestern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across The rest of Taiwan, Batanes Group of Islands, Fujian Province of China. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 320 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (from Ilocos Norte down to Zambales). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 29 AUGUST POSITION: 22.9N 120.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN TAIWAN VERIFY THAT
TS 14W IS CROSSING SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND WEAKENING. INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS BURST OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND THE
NORTHERN LUZON STRAIT, BUT THERE ARE NO SURFACE REPORTS OF SEVERE
WIND AND THE FEW REPORTING STATIONS IN THE REGION INDICATE THAT THE
LAND INTERACTION IS SEVERELY WEAKENING THE STORM. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS. THE MOST RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM TAIPEI REVEALS
THAT A STRONG RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS
STEERING THE STORM ON AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD
COURSE...(
more info)

>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific"
    
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  

*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.




> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  



> Image source:
  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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