for Thursday, 11 August 2011 [12:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 11 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 13W (UNNAMED) turns NNE across the open sea...not a threat to any land areas.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 13W (UNNAMED)
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu August 11 2011
Location of Center: 27.3º N Lat 136.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 474 km WNW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 565 km West of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 571 km NW of Iwo To
Distance 4: 847 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Sea South of Japan
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Thu Aug 11
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
13W is expected to track NE to ENE across the Western Pacific Ocean without affecting any land areas. This system will eventually dissipate into a remnant low while moving across unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
THIS EVENING (THU): Maintaining its strength as it slightly accelerate northeastward...about 443 km NW of Bonin Island [8PM AUG 11: 28.3N 137.0E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (FRI): Continues to move NE-ward with no change in strength...about 438 NNW of Bonin Island [8AM AUG 12: 29.7N 138.4E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Dissipating over the open sea of the Western Pacific...about 508 km NNW of Bonin Island [8PM AUG 12: 31.0N 140.1E @ 45kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Dissipated over water...just a remnant low pressure...about 476 km SE of Tokyo, Japan [8AM AUG 13: 32.0N 142.3E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 13W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will maintain TD treshold within the next 12 to 24 hours before dissipating.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
13W's (UNNAMED) circulation not looking good as its mid-upper level cloud convection was separated from the low-level cloud convection due to increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 11 AUGUST POSITION: 27.0N 136.1E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
(102217Z AMSU AND 102217Z SSMIS) DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND DRY SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE WEST OVER THE
RYUKUS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 10/0032Z PGTW FIX AND
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TD
13W IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS CAUSING
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
KYUSHU. TD 13W HAS ROUNDED THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR...(more info)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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