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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Fri 05 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #042/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large ragged eye of Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) moving offshore of Southern Okinawa...Northern Eyewall moving into Naha & Kadena Air Base...Typhoon Conditions expected. This system has just moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Fri August 05 2011
Location of Eye: 25.3º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 102 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 123 km South of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 134 km South of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 384 km ENE of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 635 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 806 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 812 km SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 8: 914 km SE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Offshore of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Fri Aug 04
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: SULU SEA, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, COASTAL AREAS OF BATANGAS-BATAAN-PANGASINAN-ZAMBALES, AND VISAYAS (except Eastern Visayas). Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to turn more NW'ly as it passes close to the southwestern coast of Okinawa this morning til noontime. After 24 hours, it will regain some intensity as it moves into an area of slightly warmer seas w/ favorable ocean heat content. The core shall be approaching the eastern seaboards of Jiangsu Province near Shanghai on Sunday morning (Aug 07). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Starts to move away from Okinawa...about 91 km WSW of Naha, Okinawa or 112 km SW of Kadena Air Base [2PM AUG 05: 25.8N 126.9E @ 160kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Turns NW across the East China Sea, farther away from Okinawa...about 200 km WNW of Okinawa City [2AM AUG 06: 26.7N 125.8E @ 160kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Intensified slightly as it moves across the warm waters of the East China Sea...threatens Eastern China particularly Shanghai & Jiangsu Province...about 393 km East of Wenzhou, China 2PM AUG 06: 27.9N 124.7E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Nears Category 3 status...approaching the coast of Jiangsu Province...about 276 km SE of Shanghai, China [2AM AUG 07: 29.5N 123.5E @ 175kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing to the southwest of the island...about 109 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 11:00 AM-1:00 PM Japan Time, Friday].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the coast of Jiangsu Province, China...passing very close to the east of Shanghai [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 PM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1 as it moves to the north of Shanghai, still along the coast of Eastern China [2AM AUG 08: 33.5N 121.7E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm while moving NNW along the shores of Northern China, hundreds of kilometers to the ESE of Beijing. [2AM AUG 09: 38.7N 120.7E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated into an area of low pressure after making landfall over Northern China [2AM AUG 10: 44.1N 122.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains circular and compact w/ thick raincloud convection on all quadrants. The typhoon continues to display a large ragged eye about 55 km across. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE - over water (near the coast of Southern Okinawa)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - especially the northern part has started to move across the southern parts of Okinawa which includes Naha and Kadena Air Base. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the rest of Okinawa and Southern Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Naje Island and Northern Ryukyus. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa & the Ryukyus...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN) especially along the SW portion of the circulation. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: SULU SEA, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, COASTAL AREAS OF BATANGAS-BATAAN-PANGASINAN-ZAMBALES, AND VISAYAS (except Eastern Visayas). Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: SULU SEA, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, COASTAL AREAS OF BATANGAS-BATAAN-PANGASINAN-ZAMBALES, AND VISAYAS (except Eastern Visayas). Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 05 AUGUST POSITION: 25.1N 128.1E.
*TYPH0OON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TY 11W HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND
MAINTAINED INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. AN EXPANSIVE, SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH A 30 NM RAGGED EYE AND OVER 200 NM OF GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. ON THE WHOLE, SURFACE REPORTS FROM
OKINAWA SHOW SUSTAINED SEVERE GALE FORCE WINDS AND FREQUENT STORM
FORCE GUSTS. A 041735Z AMSRE IMAGE REVEALS THAT A DEEP CONVECTIVE
BAND WAS OVER OKINAWA DURING THAT TIME. THE EYEWALL HAS THICK
CONCENTRIC BANDING AROUND THE EYE BUT SOME AREAS ARE LACKING DEEP
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND SHOWS THE VERY BEGINNINGS OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, WHICH ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. TY 11W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A 5190M 500 MB HEIGHT
CENTER OVER TOKYO. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST,
GUIDING THE STORM SOUTH OF OKINAWA. TY 11W WILL CHURN STEADILY
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, MAINTAINING A FLAT
INTENSITY TREND. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS THROUGH
SHANGHAI, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 28 AND
29 DEGREES. PEAK INTENSITY WILL COME NEAR TAU 60, WHEN TY 11W IS OFF-
SHORE OF SHANGHAI. NORTH OF SHANGHAI, A COMBINATION OF RISING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LAND
INTERACTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WILL WEAKEN THE STORM. AS
THE STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF BOHAI, THE SAME FACTORS WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE SHARP RISE IN SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL FILL OVER LAND, BUT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SHEARING AWAY FROM THE STORM'S UPPER LEVELS MAY EXACERBATE FLOODING
PROBLEMS OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF WEST TO EAST TRACKS IN THE EXTENDED RANGES,
THERE IS GOOD QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON THE SLOW AND STEADY TURN
AROUND THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
RUN, GUIDANCE PULLS THE TRACK FARTHER EAST OF SHANGHAI. THE JTWC
TRACK STAYS JUST AHEAD AND JUST INSIDE OF CONSENSUS IN ANTICIPATION
OF A CONTINUED EASTWARD WALK IN THE TRACK...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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